Brazil at World Cup 2026

Knocked out at Round of 16 — how their tournament played out

FIFA rank

Official ranking

Knocked out

Round of 16

How far they got

Bawler's full forecast for Brazil at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — placed in Group C alongside Morocco, Haiti, and Scotland. Derived from 10,000 simulations of the entire tournament, updated each morning before kickoff.

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Tournament path

Brazil's path to the trophy

Probability Brazil reaches each stage of the tournament, across 10,000 simulated tournaments.

Escape group

87.8%

Round of 16

100.0%

Quarter-finals

0.00%

Semi-finals

0.00%

Final

0.00%

Win it all

0.00%

Group C

Group C forecast

Top two from this group advance directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also progress to the Round of 32.

Team	FIFA	Top 2	R16	QF	SF	Winner
Brazil	#5	87.8%	100.0%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Morocco	#12	80.9%	100.0%	100.0%	0.00%	0.00%
Scotland	#42	21.5%	42.0%	31.0%	17.2%	1.54%
Haiti	#85	9.77%	22.3%	14.3%	6.77%	0.18%

Fixtures

Brazil's World Cup fixtures

5 matches — Bawler published a prediction for each.

13 Jun, 23:00FT
Brazil v Morocco1–1
High confidence: 1X79%

20 Jun, 01:30FT
Brazil v Haiti3–0
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals71%

24 Jun, 23:00FT
Scotland v Brazil0–3
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals75%

29 Jun, 18:00FT
Brazil v Japan2–1
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals83%

05 Jul, 21:00FT
Brazil v Norway1–2
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals76%