World Cup 2026 · Group G
Iran at World Cup 2026
Bawler's forecast across 10,000 simulated tournaments
FIFA rank
#20
Official ranking
Win the group
41.7%
Top two finish
Reach the last 16
74.4%
Round of 16
Win the cup
3.58%
Lift the trophy
Bawler's full forecast for Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — placed in Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand. Derived from 10,000 simulations of the entire tournament, updated each morning before kickoff.
Tournament path
Iran's path to the trophy
Probability Iran reaches each stage of the tournament, across 10,000 simulated tournaments.
Escape group
41.7%
Round of 16
74.4%
Quarter-finals
56.8%
Semi-finals
33.5%
Final
13.2%
Win it all
3.58%
Group G
Group G forecast
Top two from this group advance directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also progress to the Round of 32.
| Team | FIFA | Top 2 | R16 | QF | SF | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Belgium | #8 | 91.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
 Egypt | #29 | 66.5% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Iran | #20 | 41.7% | 74.4% | 56.8% | 33.5% | 3.58% |
 New Zealand | #64 | 0.04% | 0.38% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
Fixtures
Iran's World Cup fixtures
3 matches — Bawler published a prediction for each.