Australia at World Cup 2026

Knocked out at Round of 32 — how their tournament played out

FIFA rank

#26

Official ranking

Knocked out

Round of 32

How far they got

Bawler's full forecast for Australia at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — placed in Group D alongside USA, Paraguay, and Turkey. Derived from 10,000 simulations of the entire tournament, updated each morning before kickoff.

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Tournament path

Australia's path to the trophy

Probability Australia reaches each stage of the tournament, across 10,000 simulated tournaments.

Escape group

55.6%

Round of 16

0.00%

Quarter-finals

0.00%

Semi-finals

0.00%

Final

0.00%

Win it all

0.00%

Group D

Group D forecast

Top two from this group advance directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also progress to the Round of 32.

Team	FIFA	Top 2	R16	QF	SF	Winner
USA	#16	82.4%	100.0%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Paraguay	#52	62.0%	100.0%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Australia	#26	55.6%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Turkey	#43	0.02%	0.32%	0.11%	0.03%	0.00%

Fixtures

Australia's World Cup fixtures

4 matches — Bawler published a prediction for each.

14 Jun, 05:00FT
Australia v Türkiye2–0
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals71%

19 Jun, 20:00FT
United States v Australia2–0
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals74%

26 Jun, 03:00FT
Paraguay v Australia0–0
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals74%

03 Jul, 19:00FT
Australia v Egypt1–1
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals76%