World Cup 2026 · Group A
South Korea at World Cup 2026
Bawler's forecast across 10,000 simulated tournaments
FIFA rank
#23
Official ranking
Win the group
3.53%
Top two finish
Reach the last 16
23.3%
Round of 16
Win the cup
0.00%
Lift the trophy
Bawler's full forecast for South Korea at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — placed in Group A alongside Mexico, South Africa, and Czech Republic. Derived from 10,000 simulations of the entire tournament, updated each morning before kickoff.
Tournament path
South Korea's path to the trophy
Probability South Korea reaches each stage of the tournament, across 10,000 simulated tournaments.
Escape group
3.53%
Round of 16
23.3%
Quarter-finals
10.5%
Semi-finals
2.00%
Final
0.07%
Win it all
0.00%
Group A
Group A forecast
Top two from this group advance directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also progress to the Round of 32.
| Team | FIFA | Top 2 | R16 | QF | SF | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mexico | #18 | 99.7% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
 South Africa | #58 | 94.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| South Korea | #23 | 3.53% | 23.3% | 10.5% | 2.00% | 0.00% |
 Czech Republic | #33 | 2.73% | 16.9% | 7.27% | 1.36% | 0.00% |
Fixtures
South Korea's World Cup fixtures
3 matches — Bawler published a prediction for each.