World Cup 2026 · Group H
Spain at World Cup 2026
Bawler's forecast across 10,000 simulated tournaments
FIFA rank
#2
Official ranking
Win the group
98.0%
Top two finish
Reach the last 16
95.5%
Round of 16
Win the cup
33.8%
Lift the trophy
Bawler's full forecast for Spain at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — placed in Group H alongside Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay. Derived from 10,000 simulations of the entire tournament, updated each morning before kickoff.
Tournament path
Spain's path to the trophy
Probability Spain reaches each stage of the tournament, across 10,000 simulated tournaments.
Escape group
98.0%
Round of 16
95.5%
Quarter-finals
85.1%
Semi-finals
69.8%
Final
51.3%
Win it all
33.8%
Group H
Group H forecast
Top two from this group advance directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also progress to the Round of 32.
| Team | FIFA | Top 2 | R16 | QF | SF | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | #2 | 98.0% | 95.5% | 85.1% | 69.8% | 33.8% |
 Uruguay | #14 | 68.3% | 74.0% | 59.5% | 40.6% | 6.09% |
 Cape Verde | #72 | 18.1% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
 Saudi Arabia | #50 | 15.6% | 27.0% | 17.2% | 7.39% | 0.18% |
Fixtures
Spain's World Cup fixtures
8 matches — Bawler published a prediction for each.
15 Jun, 17:00FT
Spain v Cape Verde0–0
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals74%
21 Jun, 17:00FT
Spain v Saudi Arabia4–0
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals77%
27 Jun, 01:00FT
Uruguay v Spain0–1
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals72%
02 Jul, 20:00FT
Spain v Austria3–0
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals74%
06 Jul, 20:00FT
Portugal v Spain0–1
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals69%
10 Jul, 20:00FT
Spain v Belgium2–1
High confidence: 1X80%
14 Jul, 20:00FT
France v Spain0–2
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals73%
19 Jul, 20:00FT
Spain v Argentina0–0
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals71%