Spain at World Cup 2026
Bawler's forecast across 10,000 simulated tournaments
Bawler's full forecast for Spain at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — placed in Group H alongside Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay. Derived from 10,000 simulations of the entire tournament, updated each morning and cryptographically anchored to Bitcoin before kickoff.
Tournament path
Spain's path to the trophy
Probability Spain reaches each stage of the tournament, across 10,000 simulated tournaments.
Group H
Group H forecast
Top two from this group advance directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also progress to the Round of 32.
| Team | FIFA | Top 2 | R16 | QF | SF | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | #2 | 95.0% | 92.8% | 82.5% | 69.8% | 45.5% |
 Uruguay | #14 | 56.5% | 62.4% | 47.0% | 29.9% | 6.67% |
 Saudi Arabia | #50 | 28.1% | 39.5% | 26.2% | 12.9% | 1.67% |
 Cape Verde | #72 | 20.3% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Fixtures
Spain's World Cup fixtures
8 matches — Bawler published a prediction for each.
Trust = math
Why this forecast is honest
Every morning at 07:30 UK we take a provisional snapshot of the day's predictions and publish a SHA-256 fingerprint of it to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps. Each prediction is then locked and anchored per fixture at lineup confirmation, around 75 minutes before kickoff. The proof lands publicly before the match kicks off, and anyone can independently verify, offline, that the numbers above weren't edited after results came in.
See /verify for the proof files, a 30-second verification walkthrough, and an explanation of why no prediction site that edits its history could fake this if they tried.