France at World Cup 2026

Knocked out at the tournament — how their tournament played out

FIFA rank

Official ranking

Knocked out

the tournament

How far they got

Bawler's full forecast for France at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — placed in Group I alongside Senegal, Iraq, and Norway. Derived from 10,000 simulations of the entire tournament, updated each morning before kickoff.

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Tournament path

France's path to the trophy

Probability France reaches each stage of the tournament, across 10,000 simulated tournaments.

Escape group

89.6%

Round of 16

100.0%

Quarter-finals

100.0%

Semi-finals

100.0%

Final

100.0%

Win it all

0.00%

Group I

Group I forecast

Top two from this group advance directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also progress to the Round of 32.

Team	FIFA	Top 2	R16	QF	SF	Winner
France	#3	89.6%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.00%
Norway	#34	56.2%	100.0%	100.0%	0.00%	0.00%
Senegal	#19	49.0%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Iraq	#56	5.20%	10.7%	6.87%	2.78%	0.09%

Fixtures

France's World Cup fixtures

8 matches — Bawler published a prediction for each.

16 Jun, 20:00FT
France v Senegal3–1
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals74%

22 Jun, 22:00FT
France v Iraq3–0
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals82%

26 Jun, 20:00FT
Norway v France1–4
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals75%

30 Jun, 22:00FT
France v Sweden3–0
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals75%

04 Jul, 22:00FT
Paraguay v France0–1
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals71%

09 Jul, 21:00FT
France v Morocco2–0
High confidence: 1X82%

14 Jul, 20:00FT
France v Spain0–2
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals73%

18 Jul, 22:00FT
France v England4–6
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals75%