Norway at World Cup 2026

Knocked out at Quarter-finals — how their tournament played out

FIFA rank

#34

Official ranking

Knocked out

Quarter-finals

How far they got

Bawler's full forecast for Norway at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — placed in Group I alongside France, Senegal, and Iraq. Derived from 10,000 simulations of the entire tournament, updated each morning before kickoff.

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Tournament path

Norway's path to the trophy

Probability Norway reaches each stage of the tournament, across 10,000 simulated tournaments.

Escape group

56.2%

Round of 16

100.0%

Quarter-finals

100.0%

Semi-finals

0.00%

Final

0.00%

Win it all

0.00%

Group I

Group I forecast

Top two from this group advance directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also progress to the Round of 32.

Team	FIFA	Top 2	R16	QF	SF	Winner
France	#3	89.6%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.00%
Norway	#34	56.2%	100.0%	100.0%	0.00%	0.00%
Senegal	#19	49.0%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Iraq	#56	5.20%	10.7%	6.87%	2.78%	0.09%

Fixtures

Norway's World Cup fixtures

6 matches — Bawler published a prediction for each.

16 Jun, 23:00FT
Iraq v Norway1–4
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals71%

23 Jun, 01:00FT
Norway v Senegal3–2
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals75%

26 Jun, 20:00FT
Norway v France1–4
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals75%

30 Jun, 18:00FT
Ivory Coast v Norway1–2
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals68%

05 Jul, 21:00FT
Brazil v Norway1–2
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals76%

11 Jul, 22:00FT
Norway v England1–1
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals71%