BAWLER
World Cup 2026 · Group I

Iraq at World Cup 2026

Bawler's forecast across 10,000 simulated tournaments

FIFA rank
#56
Official ranking
Win the group
5.20%
Top two finish
Reach the last 16
10.7%
Round of 16
Win the cup
0.09%
Lift the trophy

Bawler's full forecast for Iraq at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — placed in Group I alongside France, Senegal, and Norway. Derived from 10,000 simulations of the entire tournament, updated each morning before kickoff.

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Tournament path

Iraq's path to the trophy

Probability Iraq reaches each stage of the tournament, across 10,000 simulated tournaments.

Escape group
5.20%
Round of 16
10.7%
Quarter-finals
6.87%
Semi-finals
2.78%
Final
0.75%
Win it all
0.09%

Group I

Group I forecast

Top two from this group advance directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also progress to the Round of 32.

TeamFIFATop 2R16QFSFWinner
France#389.6%100.0%100.0%100.0%0.00%
Norway#3456.2%100.0%100.0%0.00%0.00%
Senegal#1949.0%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Iraq#565.20%10.7%6.87%2.78%0.09%

Fixtures

Iraq's World Cup fixtures

3 matches — Bawler published a prediction for each.

16 Jun, 23:00FT
Iraq v Norway1–4
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals71%
22 Jun, 22:00FT
France v Iraq3–0
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals82%
26 Jun, 20:00FT
Senegal v Iraq5–0
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals81%