prediction_explorer

Bawler prediction explorer: accuracy by competition, confidence & market

Every Bawler pick is logged before kickoff and settled automatically from live results — no deletions, no edits. Use the filters to slice 3,086 settled predictions by competition, confidence band (High confidence / Medium confidence / Outside shot) and market, and watch the accuracy recompute live. The full findings table below is baked into the page so it reads without JavaScript.

Coverage 2026-03-182026-08-15 · 42 competitions · 173 markets

High confidence accuracy
73.8%
841/1140 settled
Medium confidence accuracy
51.1%
519/1015 settled
Outside shot accuracy
27.5%
256/931 settled
Total predictions settled
3,086
42 competitions

Accuracy by competition

Settled-prediction accuracy for each competition with at least 10 High confidence picks, most-covered first. Every figure is recomputable from the same ledger on the track record.

CompetitionHigh confidenceMedium confidenceOutside shotPredictions
All competitions73.8% (841/1140)51.1% (519/1015)27.5% (256/931)3,086
USA: MLS72.4% (110/152)51.7% (60/116)36.2% (50/138)406
World: World Cup68.3% (71/104)58.6% (34/58)28.8% (30/104)266
World: International Friendly72.8% (67/92)65.2% (60/92)26.1% (24/92)276
England: Championship79.4% (50/63)54.0% (34/63)21.4% (9/42)168
Europe: Conference League - Qualification71.2% (42/59)54.5% (24/44)23.7% (14/59)162
Spain: La Liga74.1% (43/58)43.1% (25/58)27.1% (13/48)164
Italy: Serie A64.9% (37/57)45.6% (26/57)27.7% (13/47)161
World: Friendly International77.8% (42/54)46.3% (25/54) (0/0)108
England: Premier League72.5% (37/51)41.2% (21/51)33.3% (14/42)144
Netherlands: Eredivisie83.3% (40/48)44.2% (19/43)40.0% (16/40)131
Portugal: Primeira Liga78.7% (37/47)48.9% (22/45)32.4% (12/37)129
France: Ligue 169.6% (32/46)47.8% (22/46)22.2% (8/36)128
Turkey: Süper Lig71.1% (27/38)47.4% (18/38)17.1% (6/35)111
Germany: Bundesliga88.9% (32/36)55.6% (20/36)28.6% (8/28)100
England: EFL Cup61.8% (21/34)70.4% (19/27)5.9% (2/34)95
Europe: Europa League - Qualification75.0% (18/24)58.8% (10/17)25.0% (6/24)65
Belgium: Pro League90.0% (18/20)42.1% (8/19)35.0% (7/20)59
Europe: Conference League - Play Offs72.2% (13/18)50.0% (9/18)20.0% (2/10)46
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League83.3% (15/18)41.2% (7/17)27.3% (3/11)46
Europe: Champions League - Qualification75.0% (12/16)61.5% (8/13)12.5% (2/16)45
Europe: Europa League - Play Offs81.3% (13/16)18.8% (3/16)33.3% (3/9)41
Scotland: Premiership71.4% (10/14)69.2% (9/13)62.5% (5/8)35
Europe: World Cup - Qualification - Promotion75.0% (9/12)41.7% (5/12) (0/0)24

High confidence is the free, safest pick; Medium confidence and Outside shot are the higher-variance bands. An Outside shot is expected to land less often than a High confidence call by design — read accuracy against each band's purpose, not against each other.

Filter the settled predictions

Combine competition, confidence band, market and result. The accuracy recomputes as you filter.

Hit rate for this filter
52.4%
1616/3086 settled picks
High confidence
73.8%
841/1140
Medium confidence
51.1%
519/1015
Outside shot
27.5%
256/931
DateMatchTierPickResult
15 Aug 26Bolton Wanderers v Preston North EndHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
15 Aug 26Bolton Wanderers v Preston North EndMedium confidenceOver 2.5 GoalsWON
15 Aug 26Bolton Wanderers v Preston North EndOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
15 Aug 26Bristol City v MillwallHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
15 Aug 26Bristol City v MillwallMedium confidenceOver 2.5 GoalsLOST
15 Aug 26Bristol City v MillwallOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
15 Aug 26Charlton Athletic v Derby CountyHigh confidence1XWON
15 Aug 26Charlton Athletic v Derby CountyMedium confidenceUnder 2.5 GoalsLOST
15 Aug 26Charlton Athletic v Derby CountyOutside shotAway WinLOST
15 Aug 26Middlesbrough v Lincoln CityHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
15 Aug 26Middlesbrough v Lincoln CityMedium confidenceUnder 2.5 GoalsLOST
15 Aug 26Middlesbrough v Lincoln CityOutside shotX2LOST
15 Aug 26Norwich City v West Bromwich AlbionHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
15 Aug 26Norwich City v West Bromwich AlbionMedium confidenceBTTS NoLOST
15 Aug 26Norwich City v West Bromwich AlbionOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
15 Aug 26Portsmouth v Queens Park RangersHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
15 Aug 26Portsmouth v Queens Park RangersMedium confidenceBTTS NoLOST
15 Aug 26Portsmouth v Queens Park RangersOutside shotX2WON
15 Aug 26Stoke City v Swansea CityHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
15 Aug 26Stoke City v Swansea CityMedium confidenceUnder 2.5 GoalsLOST
15 Aug 26Stoke City v Swansea CityOutside shotX2WON
15 Aug 26Sheffield United v Birmingham CityHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsLOST
15 Aug 26Sheffield United v Birmingham CityMedium confidenceUnder 2.5 GoalsWON
15 Aug 26Sheffield United v Birmingham CityOutside shotX2WON
15 Aug 26Alverca v EstrelaHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
15 Aug 26Alverca v EstrelaMedium confidenceOver 2.5 GoalsWON
15 Aug 26Alverca v EstrelaOutside shotX2WON
15 Aug 26Willem II v NEC NijmegenHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
15 Aug 26Willem II v NEC NijmegenOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsWON
15 Aug 26Kasimpasa v TrabzonsporHigh confidenceKasimpasa or DrawWON
15 Aug 26Kasimpasa v TrabzonsporMedium confidenceOver 2.5 GoalsLOST
15 Aug 26Kasimpasa v TrabzonsporOutside shotDrawWON
15 Aug 26Konyaspor v Caykur RizesporHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsLOST
15 Aug 26Konyaspor v Caykur RizesporMedium confidenceBTTS NoWON
15 Aug 26Konyaspor v Caykur RizesporOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
15 Aug 26Union St.-Gilloise v Zulte-WaregemHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsLOST
15 Aug 26Union St.-Gilloise v Zulte-WaregemMedium confidenceOver 2.5 GoalsLOST
15 Aug 26Union St.-Gilloise v Zulte-WaregemOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
15 Aug 26KV Kortrijk v AntwerpHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
15 Aug 26KV Kortrijk v AntwerpMedium confidenceOver 2.5 GoalsWON
15 Aug 26KV Kortrijk v AntwerpOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
14 Aug 26Wolverhampton Wanderers v Blackburn RoversHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
14 Aug 26Wolverhampton Wanderers v Blackburn RoversMedium confidenceUnder 2.5 GoalsLOST
14 Aug 26Wolverhampton Wanderers v Blackburn RoversOutside shotAway WinLOST
14 Aug 26Sporting CP v Vitória de GuimaraesHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
14 Aug 26Sporting CP v Vitória de GuimaraesMedium confidenceBTTS NoLOST
14 Aug 26Sporting CP v Vitória de GuimaraesOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsWON
14 Aug 26Telstar v Sparta RotterdamHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
14 Aug 26Telstar v Sparta RotterdamOutside shotX2WON
14 Aug 26Galatasaray v Çorum FKHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
14 Aug 26Galatasaray v Çorum FKMedium confidenceBTTS NoLOST
14 Aug 26Galatasaray v Çorum FKOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsWON
14 Aug 26Cercle Brugge KSV v Sint-TruidenseHigh confidenceCercle Brugge KSV or DrawWON
14 Aug 26Cercle Brugge KSV v Sint-TruidenseMedium confidenceOver 2.5 GoalsWON
14 Aug 26Cercle Brugge KSV v Sint-TruidenseOutside shotDrawWON
13 Aug 26Besiktas v FC Hradec KrálovéHigh confidenceBesiktas or DrawWON
13 Aug 26Besiktas v FC Hradec KrálovéMedium confidenceOver 2.5 GoalsLOST
13 Aug 26Besiktas v FC Hradec KrálovéOutside shotDrawLOST
13 Aug 26CSU Craiova v KuPS KuopioHigh confidenceCSU Craiova or DrawWON
13 Aug 26CSU Craiova v KuPS KuopioMedium confidenceOver 2.5 GoalsWON

Showing 60 of 3086 matching picks · every number recomputes from the same settled ledger published on the track record.

How the numbers are kept honest

  • Picks are locked when official lineups drop (~75 minutes before kickoff) and written to an append-only log with a content hash — they cannot be changed after the fact.
  • Results settle automatically from live match data. We do not hand-grade, delete losers, or backdate winners.
  • Every accuracy figure on this page is computed from the 3,086 settled predictions in the ledger — the same data published on the track record, so you can recompute any figure yourself.