prediction_explorer

Bawler prediction explorer: accuracy by competition, confidence & market

Every Bawler pick is logged before kickoff and settled automatically from live results — no deletions, no edits. Use the filters to slice 5,430 settled predictions by competition, confidence band (High confidence / Medium confidence / Outside shot) and market, and watch the accuracy recompute live. The full findings table below is baked into the page so it reads without JavaScript.

Coverage 2026-03-18 → 2026-09-30 · 46 competitions · 178 markets

High confidence accuracy
75.3%
1611/2139 settled
Medium confidence accuracy
54.2%
808/1491 settled
Outside shot accuracy
29.1%
523/1800 settled
Total predictions settled
5,430
46 competitions

Accuracy by competition

Settled-prediction accuracy for each competition with at least 10 High confidence picks, most-covered first. Every figure is recomputable from the same ledger on the track record.

CompetitionHigh confidenceMedium confidenceOutside shotPredictions
All competitions75.3% (1611/2139)54.2% (808/1491)29.1% (523/1800)5,430
USA: MLS73.7% (210/285)57.8% (104/180)33.3% (85/255)720
England: Championship76.5% (114/149)56.4% (62/110)31.0% (39/126)385
World: International Friendly72.4% (92/127)63.6% (68/107)28.4% (33/116)350
Spain: La Liga78.0% (99/127)52.1% (50/96)31.3% (35/112)335
Italy: Serie A71.0% (76/107)52.4% (44/84)25.5% (24/94)285
Europe: Conference League - Qualification74.8% (80/107)56.9% (41/72)29.8% (31/104)283
World: World Cup68.3% (71/104)58.6% (34/58)28.8% (30/104)266
England: Premier League72.3% (73/101)45.2% (33/73)33.3% (29/87)261
Netherlands: Eredivisie83.7% (82/98)49.2% (30/61)37.5% (27/72)231
Portugal: Primeira Liga81.6% (80/98)50.7% (36/71)31.4% (27/86)255
France: Ligue 172.5% (66/91)52.9% (37/70)27.0% (20/74)235
Turkey: Süper Lig71.9% (64/89)39.7% (23/58)22.6% (19/84)231
England: EFL Cup74.0% (54/73)73.5% (36/49)22.9% (16/70)192
Germany: Bundesliga84.7% (61/72)54.3% (25/46)38.2% (21/55)173
Belgium: Pro League78.2% (43/55)47.4% (18/38)26.9% (14/52)145
World: Friendly International77.8% (42/54)46.3% (25/54)— (0/0)108
Europe: UEFA Nations League73.1% (38/52)60.0% (12/20)23.5% (8/34)106
Europe: Europa League - Qualification75.0% (36/48)63.6% (21/33)22.9% (11/48)129
Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League65.1% (28/43)80.0% (12/15)27.8% (10/36)94
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League88.2% (30/34)46.2% (12/26)26.9% (7/26)86
Europe: Champions League - Qualification80.0% (24/30)55.0% (11/20)23.3% (7/30)80
Scotland: Premiership75.0% (18/24)63.2% (12/19)41.2% (7/17)60
Europe: Europa League78.9% (15/19)50.0% (3/6)6.3% (1/16)41
Europe: Champions League89.5% (17/19)75.0% (6/8)55.6% (5/9)36
Europe: Conference League - Play Offs72.2% (13/18)50.0% (9/18)20.0% (2/10)46
Scotland: Scottish Prem75.0% (12/16)54.5% (6/11)20.0% (3/15)42
Europe: Europa League - Play Offs81.3% (13/16)18.8% (3/16)33.3% (3/9)41
Europe: World Cup - Qualification - Promotion75.0% (9/12)41.7% (5/12)— (0/0)24
Spain: Copa Del Rey80.0% (8/10)— (0/0)10.0% (1/10)20

High confidence is the free, safest pick; Medium confidence and Outside shot are the higher-variance bands. An Outside shot is expected to land less often than a High confidence call by design — read accuracy against each band's purpose, not against each other.

Filter the settled predictions

Combine competition, confidence band, market and result. The accuracy recomputes as you filter.

Hit rate for this filter
54.2%
2942/5430 settled picks
Most likely
75.3%
1611/2139
Close call
54.2%
808/1491
Outside shot
29.1%
523/1800
DateMatchTierPickResult
30 Sept 26Papua New Guinea v Solomon IslandsMost likelyOver 1.5 GoalsWON
30 Sept 26Papua New Guinea v Solomon IslandsClose callHome WinLOST
30 Sept 26Mexico v PeruMost likelyHome WinLOST
30 Sept 26Mexico v PeruOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
30 Sept 26United States v ChileMost likelyHome WinWON
29 Sept 26Spain v CroatiaMost likelyHome WinWON
29 Sept 26Spain v CroatiaOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsWON
29 Sept 26Slovenia v North MacedoniaMost likely1XWON
29 Sept 26Slovenia v North MacedoniaOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
29 Sept 26Slovakia v KazakhstanMost likelyHome WinWON
29 Sept 26Slovakia v KazakhstanClose callOver 2.5 GoalsWON
29 Sept 26Slovakia v KazakhstanOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
29 Sept 26Scotland v SwitzerlandMost likelyX2WON
29 Sept 26Scotland v SwitzerlandOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
29 Sept 26San Marino v AlbaniaMost likelyAway WinWON
29 Sept 26Luxembourg v IcelandMost likelyOver 1.5 GoalsWON
29 Sept 26Luxembourg v IcelandClose callOver 2.5 GoalsWON
29 Sept 26Luxembourg v IcelandOutside shotDrawLOST
29 Sept 26Czechia v EnglandMost likelyAway WinWON
29 Sept 26Bulgaria v EstoniaMost likelyOver 1.5 GoalsLOST
29 Sept 26Bulgaria v EstoniaOutside shotDrawWON
29 Sept 26Moldova v Faroe IslandsMost likelyAway WinLOST
29 Sept 26Moldova v Faroe IslandsOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
29 Sept 26Finland v BelarusMost likelyOver 1.5 GoalsLOST
29 Sept 26Finland v BelarusOutside shotDrawWON
29 Sept 26Russia v IranMost likelyOver 1.5 GoalsWON
29 Sept 26Russia v IranClose callOver 2.5 GoalsLOST
29 Sept 26Russia v IranOutside shotDrawLOST
29 Sept 26Australia v BrazilMost likelyX2WON
29 Sept 26Australia v BrazilOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsWON
28 Sept 26Türkiye v ItalyMost likelyOver 1.5 GoalsWON
28 Sept 26Türkiye v ItalyClose call1XLOST
28 Sept 26Türkiye v ItalyOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsWON
28 Sept 26Sweden v PolandMost likelyOver 1.5 GoalsWON
28 Sept 26Sweden v PolandOutside shotDrawLOST
28 Sept 26Romania v Bosnia-HerzegovinaMost likelyOver 1.5 GoalsWON
28 Sept 26Romania v Bosnia-HerzegovinaClose callOver 2.5 GoalsWON
28 Sept 26Romania v Bosnia-HerzegovinaOutside shotDrawLOST
28 Sept 26Northern Ireland v HungaryMost likelyOver 1.5 GoalsLOST
28 Sept 26Northern Ireland v HungaryOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
28 Sept 26Belgium v FranceMost likelyOver 1.5 GoalsLOST
28 Sept 26Belgium v FranceClose call1XLOST
28 Sept 26Belgium v FranceOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
28 Sept 26Latvia v CyprusMost likelyOver 1.5 GoalsLOST
28 Sept 26Latvia v CyprusOutside shotDrawWON
28 Sept 26Georgia v UkraineMost likelyX2WON
28 Sept 26Georgia v UkraineClose callOver 2.5 GoalsLOST
28 Sept 26Georgia v UkraineOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
28 Sept 26Armenia v MontenegroMost likelyOver 1.5 GoalsWON
28 Sept 26Armenia v MontenegroOutside shotDrawLOST
28 Sept 26Tajikistan v PalestineMost likely1XLOST
28 Sept 26Tajikistan v PalestineClose callOver 2.5 GoalsWON
28 Sept 26Tajikistan v PalestineOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsWON
28 Sept 26South Korea v UruguayMost likely1XLOST
28 Sept 26South Korea v UruguayOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsWON
28 Sept 26Japan v VenezuelaMost likelyHome WinWON
27 Sept 26Norway v PortugalMost likelyOver 1.5 GoalsWON
27 Sept 26Norway v PortugalOutside shotDrawLOST
27 Sept 26Israel v Republic of IrelandMost likelyOver 1.5 GoalsWON
27 Sept 26Israel v Republic of IrelandClose callAway WinWON

Showing 60 of 5430 matching picks · every number recomputes from the same settled ledger published on the track record.

How the numbers are kept honest

  • Picks are locked when official lineups drop (~75 minutes before kickoff) and written to an append-only log with a content hash — they cannot be changed after the fact.
  • Results settle automatically from live match data. We do not hand-grade, delete losers, or backdate winners.
  • Every accuracy figure on this page is computed from the 5,430 settled predictions in the ledger — the same data published on the track record, so you can recompute any figure yourself.