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Bawler prediction explorer: accuracy by competition, tier & market

Every Bawler pick is logged before kickoff and settled automatically from live results — no deletions, no edits. Use the filters to slice 2,309 settled picks by competition, pick tier (Banker / Value / Dark Horse) and betting market, and watch the hit rate recompute live. The full findings table below is baked into the page so it reads without JavaScript.

Coverage 2026-03-18 → 2026-07-01 · 37 competitions · 57 markets

Banker hit rate
73.8%
628/851 settled
Value hit rate
50.6%
413/816 settled
Dark Horse hit rate
27.4%
176/642 settled
Total picks settled
2,309
37 competitions

Hit rate by competition

Settled-pick hit rate for each competition with at least 10 Banker picks, most-covered first. Every figure is recomputable from the same ledger on the track record.

CompetitionBankerValueDark HorsePicks
All competitions73.8% (628/851)50.6% (413/816)27.4% (176/642)2,309
USA: MLS72.4% (76/105)52.9% (55/104)34.1% (31/91)300
World: International Friendly74.0% (54/73)65.8% (48/73)27.4% (20/73)219
World: World Cup65.2% (45/69)66.7% (24/36)30.4% (21/69)174
Spain: La Liga74.1% (43/58)43.1% (25/58)27.1% (13/48)164
Italy: Serie A64.9% (37/57)45.6% (26/57)27.7% (13/47)161
England: Championship77.8% (42/54)59.3% (32/54)18.2% (6/33)141
World: Friendly International77.8% (42/54)46.3% (25/54)— (0/0)108
England: Premier League72.5% (37/51)41.2% (21/51)33.3% (14/42)144
France: Ligue 168.9% (31/45)48.9% (22/45)22.9% (8/35)125
Netherlands: Eredivisie83.8% (31/37)45.9% (17/37)34.5% (10/29)103
Germany: Bundesliga88.9% (32/36)55.6% (20/36)28.6% (8/28)100
Turkey: Süper Lig71.4% (25/35)48.6% (17/35)12.5% (4/32)102
Portugal: Primeira Liga74.3% (26/35)48.6% (17/35)24.0% (6/25)95
Belgium: Pro League89.5% (17/19)42.1% (8/19)36.8% (7/19)57
Europe: Conference League - Play Offs72.2% (13/18)50.0% (9/18)20.0% (2/10)46
Europe: Europa League - Play Offs81.3% (13/16)18.8% (3/16)33.3% (3/9)41
Europe: World Cup - Qualification - Promotion75.0% (9/12)41.7% (5/12)— (0/0)24

Banker is the free, highest-confidence pick; Value and Dark Horse are the graded higher-variance tiers. A Dark Horse tier is expected to land less often than a Banker by design — read hit rates against each tier's purpose, not against each other.

Filter the settled picks

Combine competition, tier, market and result. The hit rate recomputes as you filter.

Hit rate for this filter
52.7%
1217/2309 settled picks
Banker
73.8%
628/851
Value
50.6%
413/816
Dark Horse
27.4%
176/642
DateMatchTierPickResult
01 Jul 26Mexico v EcuadorBankerOver 1.5 GoalsWON
01 Jul 26Mexico v EcuadorDark HorseOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
30 Jun 26France v SwedenBankerOver 2.5 GoalsWON
30 Jun 26France v SwedenDark HorseUnder 2.5 GoalsLOST
30 Jun 26Ivory Coast v NorwayBankerOver 2.5 GoalsWON
30 Jun 26Ivory Coast v NorwayValueX2WON
30 Jun 26Ivory Coast v NorwayDark HorseOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
29 Jun 26Germany v ParaguayBankerOver 2.5 GoalsLOST
29 Jun 26Germany v ParaguayDark HorseOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
29 Jun 26Brazil v JapanBankerOver 1.5 GoalsWON
29 Jun 26Brazil v JapanDark HorseUnder 2.5 GoalsLOST
28 Jun 26South Africa v CanadaBankerOver 1.5 GoalsLOST
28 Jun 26South Africa v CanadaValueX2WON
28 Jun 26South Africa v CanadaDark HorseDrawLOST
28 Jun 26Jordan v ArgentinaBankerOver 2.5 GoalsWON
28 Jun 26Jordan v ArgentinaDark HorseOver 3.5 GoalsWON
28 Jun 26Algeria v AustriaBankerOver 1.5 GoalsWON
28 Jun 26Algeria v AustriaDark HorseDrawWON
27 Jun 26Congo DR v UzbekistanBankerX2LOST
27 Jun 26Congo DR v UzbekistanValueBTTS YesWON
27 Jun 26Congo DR v UzbekistanDark HorseDrawLOST
27 Jun 26Colombia v PortugalBankerOver 2.5 GoalsLOST
27 Jun 26Colombia v PortugalDark HorseOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
27 Jun 26Panama v EnglandBankerOver 2.5 GoalsLOST
27 Jun 26Panama v EnglandDark HorseUnder 2.5 GoalsWON
27 Jun 26Croatia v GhanaBankerOver 1.5 GoalsWON
27 Jun 26Croatia v GhanaDark HorseUnder 2.5 GoalsLOST
27 Jun 26New Zealand v BelgiumBankerOver 2.5 GoalsWON
27 Jun 26New Zealand v BelgiumDark HorseOver 3.5 GoalsWON
27 Jun 26Egypt v IranBankerOver 1.5 GoalsWON
27 Jun 26Egypt v IranDark HorseOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
27 Jun 26Uruguay v SpainBankerOver 2.5 GoalsLOST
27 Jun 26Uruguay v SpainDark HorseOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
27 Jun 26Cape Verde v Saudi ArabiaBankerX2WON
27 Jun 26Cape Verde v Saudi ArabiaDark HorseDrawWON
26 Jun 26Senegal v IraqBankerOver 2.5 GoalsWON
26 Jun 26Senegal v IraqDark HorseOver 3.5 GoalsWON
26 Jun 26Norway v FranceBankerOver 2.5 GoalsWON
26 Jun 26Norway v FranceDark HorseUnder 2.5 GoalsLOST
26 Jun 26Türkiye v United StatesBankerOver 1.5 GoalsWON
26 Jun 26Türkiye v United StatesDark HorseOver 3.5 GoalsWON
26 Jun 26Paraguay v AustraliaBankerOver 1.5 GoalsLOST
26 Jun 26Paraguay v AustraliaDark HorseDrawWON
25 Jun 26Tunisia v NetherlandsBankerOver 2.5 GoalsWON
25 Jun 26Tunisia v NetherlandsDark Horse1XLOST
25 Jun 26Japan v SwedenBankerOver 2.5 GoalsLOST
25 Jun 26Japan v SwedenDark HorseAway WinLOST
25 Jun 26Ecuador v GermanyBankerOver 2.5 GoalsWON
25 Jun 26Ecuador v GermanyDark HorseOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
25 Jun 26Curaçao v Ivory CoastBankerAway WinWON
25 Jun 26Curaçao v Ivory CoastDark HorseUnder 2.5 GoalsWON
25 Jun 26South Africa v South KoreaBankerOver 2.5 GoalsLOST
25 Jun 26South Africa v South KoreaDark HorseOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
25 Jun 26Czechia v MexicoBankerOver 1.5 GoalsWON
25 Jun 26Czechia v MexicoValueBTTS YesLOST
25 Jun 26Czechia v MexicoDark HorseHome WinLOST
24 Jun 26Scotland v BrazilBankerOver 2.5 GoalsWON
24 Jun 26Scotland v BrazilDark HorseUnder 2.5 GoalsLOST
24 Jun 26Morocco v HaitiBankerOver 2.5 GoalsWON
24 Jun 26Morocco v HaitiDark HorseUnder 2.5 GoalsLOST

Showing 60 of 2309 matching picks · every number recomputes from the same settled ledger published on the track record.

How the numbers are kept honest

  • Picks are locked when official lineups drop (~75 minutes before kickoff) and written to an append-only log with a content hash — they cannot be changed after the fact.
  • Results settle automatically from live match data. We do not hand-grade, delete losers, or backdate winners.
  • Every hit rate on this page is computed from the 2,309 settled picks in the ledger — the same data published on the track record, so you can recompute any figure yourself.