Senegal at World Cup 2026

Knocked out at Round of 32 — how their tournament played out

FIFA rank

#19

Official ranking

Knocked out

Round of 32

How far they got

Bawler's full forecast for Senegal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — placed in Group I alongside France, Iraq, and Norway. Derived from 10,000 simulations of the entire tournament, updated each morning before kickoff.

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Tournament path

Senegal's path to the trophy

Probability Senegal reaches each stage of the tournament, across 10,000 simulated tournaments.

Escape group

49.0%

Round of 16

0.00%

Quarter-finals

0.00%

Semi-finals

0.00%

Final

0.00%

Win it all

0.00%

Group I

Group I forecast

Top two from this group advance directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also progress to the Round of 32.

Team	FIFA	Top 2	R16	QF	SF	Winner
France	#3	89.6%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.00%
Norway	#34	56.2%	100.0%	100.0%	0.00%	0.00%
Senegal	#19	49.0%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Iraq	#56	5.20%	10.7%	6.87%	2.78%	0.09%

Fixtures

Senegal's World Cup fixtures

4 matches — Bawler published a prediction for each.

16 Jun, 20:00FT
France v Senegal3–1
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals74%

23 Jun, 01:00FT
Norway v Senegal3–2
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals75%

26 Jun, 20:00FT
Senegal v Iraq5–0
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals81%

01 Jul, 21:00FT
Belgium v Senegal2–2
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals74%