World Cup 2026 · Group B
Out · Round of 16
Out · Round of 16Canada at World Cup 2026
Knocked out at Round of 16 — how their tournament played out
FIFA rank
#48
Official ranking
Knocked out
Round of 16
How far they got
Bawler's full forecast for Canada at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — placed in Group B alongside Bosnia & Herzegovina, Qatar, and Switzerland. Derived from 10,000 simulations of the entire tournament, updated each morning before kickoff.
Tournament path
Canada's path to the trophy
Probability Canada reaches each stage of the tournament, across 10,000 simulated tournaments.
Escape group
90.1%
Round of 16
100.0%
Quarter-finals
0.00%
Semi-finals
0.00%
Final
0.00%
Win it all
0.00%
Group B
Group B forecast
Top two from this group advance directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also progress to the Round of 32.
| Team | FIFA | Top 2 | R16 | QF | SF | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Switzerland | #15 | 94.5% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Canada | #48 | 90.1% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
 Qatar | #59 | 15.1% | 48.8% | 29.3% | 11.0% | 0.20% |
 Bosnia & Herzegovina | #62 | 0.31% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Fixtures
Canada's World Cup fixtures
5 matches — Bawler published a prediction for each.
12 Jun, 20:00FT
Canada v Bosnia-Herzegovina1–1
High confidence: 1X78%
18 Jun, 23:00FT
Canada v Qatar6–0
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals74%
24 Jun, 20:00FT
Switzerland v Canada2–1
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals81%
28 Jun, 20:00FT
South Africa v Canada0–1
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals74%
04 Jul, 18:00FT
Canada v Morocco0–3
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals71%