World Cup 2026 · Group FOut · Round of 32

Netherlands at World Cup 2026

Knocked out at Round of 32 — how their tournament played out

FIFA rank
#7
Official ranking
Knocked out
Round of 32
How far they got

Bawler's full forecast for Netherlands at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — placed in Group F alongside Japan, Sweden, and Tunisia. Derived from 10,000 simulations of the entire tournament, updated each morning before kickoff.

Tournament path

Netherlands's path to the trophy

Probability Netherlands reaches each stage of the tournament, across 10,000 simulated tournaments.

Escape group
85.6%
Round of 16
0.00%
Quarter-finals
0.00%
Semi-finals
0.00%
Final
0.00%
Win it all
0.00%

Group F

Group F forecast

Top two from this group advance directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also progress to the Round of 32.

TeamFIFATop 2R16QFSFWinner
Netherlands#785.6%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Japan#1779.2%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Sweden#2525.6%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Tunisia#319.68%19.6%13.2%5.93%0.27%