World Cup 2026 · Group F
Out · Round of 32
Out · Round of 32Japan at World Cup 2026
Knocked out at Round of 32 — how their tournament played out
FIFA rank
#17
Official ranking
Knocked out
Round of 32
How far they got
Bawler's full forecast for Japan at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — placed in Group F alongside Netherlands, Sweden, and Tunisia. Derived from 10,000 simulations of the entire tournament, updated each morning before kickoff.
Tournament path
Japan's path to the trophy
Probability Japan reaches each stage of the tournament, across 10,000 simulated tournaments.
Escape group
79.2%
Round of 16
0.00%
Quarter-finals
0.00%
Semi-finals
0.00%
Final
0.00%
Win it all
0.00%
Group F
Group F forecast
Top two from this group advance directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also progress to the Round of 32.
| Team | FIFA | Top 2 | R16 | QF | SF | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Netherlands | #7 | 85.6% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Japan | #17 | 79.2% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
 Sweden | #25 | 25.6% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
 Tunisia | #31 | 9.68% | 19.6% | 13.2% | 5.93% | 0.27% |
Fixtures
Japan's World Cup fixtures
4 matches — Bawler published a prediction for each.