World Cup 2026 · Group E
Out · Round of 32
Out · Round of 32Ecuador at World Cup 2026
Knocked out at Round of 32 — how their tournament played out
FIFA rank
#30
Official ranking
Knocked out
Round of 32
How far they got
Bawler's full forecast for Ecuador at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — placed in Group E alongside Germany, Curacao, and Ivory Coast. Derived from 10,000 simulations of the entire tournament, updated each morning before kickoff.
Tournament path
Ecuador's path to the trophy
Probability Ecuador reaches each stage of the tournament, across 10,000 simulated tournaments.
Escape group
57.5%
Round of 16
0.00%
Quarter-finals
0.00%
Semi-finals
0.00%
Final
0.00%
Win it all
0.00%
Group E
Group E forecast
Top two from this group advance directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also progress to the Round of 32.
| Team | FIFA | Top 2 | R16 | QF | SF | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Germany | #11 | 94.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Ecuador | #30 | 57.5% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
 Ivory Coast | #47 | 25.7% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
 Curacao | #90 | 22.8% | 35.2% | 22.2% | 8.96% | 0.15% |
Fixtures
Ecuador's World Cup fixtures
4 matches — Bawler published a prediction for each.