> data_report · published 1 July 2026
We logged 851 football picks before kickoff, across 46 competitions, and let live results settle them automatically. The headline: Bawler's free Banker pick landed 73.8% of the time (628 of 851). Just as important — picks land close to the confidence Bawler gives them, which is the real test of whether a prediction means anything.
851 settled picks · 46 competitions · 18 March 2026 – 1 July 2026
Every figure here is recomputable from the public ledger at bawler.ai/track-record.
Anyone can post one lucky prediction. The harder question is whether a tool's confidence is trustworthy — when it says a pick is 75% likely, does it actually land about three times in four? We grouped every single-outcome pick by the confidence Bawler assigned it, then compared that number to how often those picks really won. The two columns track each other closely across the whole range.
| Confidence Bawler assigned | Avg. predicted | Actually won | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20–30% | 25.5% | 27.2% | 604 |
| 30–40% | 34.7% | 32.3% | 31 |
| 40–50% | 45.3% | 44.0% | 225 |
| 50–60% | 52.9% | 52.4% | 569 |
| 60–70% | 67.1% | 73.8% | 61 |
| 70–80% | 75.3% | 71.1% | 537 |
| 80–90% | 83.6% | 79.4% | 243 |
| 90–100% | 92.2% | 90.0% | 20 |
Bands with fewer than 20 picks are omitted to avoid small-sample noise. "Actually won" is the share of picks in that confidence band that settled as a win.
The free Banker pick — the safest of the three — broken down by league, for the competitions with the most settled picks. These are the regional cuts most useful for a specific desk.
| Competition | Banker hit rate | Settled picks |
|---|---|---|
| International Friendly | 75.6% | 96/127 |
| MLS | 72.4% | 76/105 |
| World Cup | 65.2% | 45/69 |
| La Liga | 74.1% | 43/58 |
| Serie A | 64.9% | 37/57 |
| Championship | 77.8% | 42/54 |
| Premier League | 72.5% | 37/51 |
| Ligue 1 | 68.9% | 31/45 |
| Eredivisie | 83.8% | 31/37 |
Only competitions with 20 or more settled Banker picks are shown. Single-league samples are smaller than the full study, so treat them as indicative.
Bawler, The 2026 Football Prediction Accuracy Report, published 1 July 2026. Based on 851 settled picks across 46 competitions (18 March 2026–1 July 2026). Key figure: the free Banker pick landed 73.8% (628/851). Source data: bawler.ai/track-record.
Journalists and researchers are welcome to reproduce these figures. For the underlying data or a league-specific cut, the public ledger is the source of truth.