data_report · published 1 July 2026
We logged 1140 football predictions before kickoff, across 55 competitions, and let live results settle them automatically. The headline: Bawler's free High confidence pick landed 73.8% of the time (841 of 1140). Just as important — picks land close to the confidence Bawler gives them, which is the real test of whether a prediction means anything.
1140 settled picks · 55 competitions · 18 March 2026 – 15 August 2026
Every figure here is recomputable from the public ledger at bawler.ai/track-record.
Anyone can post one lucky prediction. The harder question is whether a tool's confidence is trustworthy — when it says a pick is 75% likely, does it actually land about three times in four? We grouped every single-outcome pick by the confidence Bawler assigned it, then compared that number to how often those picks really won. The two columns track each other closely across the whole range.
| Confidence Bawler assigned | Avg. predicted | Actually won | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 18.8% | 44.4% | 27 |
| 20–30% | 25.7% | 26.9% | 880 |
| 30–40% | 34.2% | 36.1% | 36 |
| 40–50% | 45.4% | 44.7% | 235 |
| 50–60% | 52.8% | 52.5% | 756 |
| 60–70% | 67.7% | 71.6% | 204 |
| 70–80% | 75.3% | 72.0% | 643 |
| 80–90% | 83.4% | 78.9% | 285 |
| 90–100% | 92.2% | 90.0% | 20 |
Bands with fewer than 20 picks are omitted to avoid small-sample noise. "Actually won" is the share of picks in that confidence band that settled as a win.
The free High confidence pick — the safest of the three — broken down by league, for the competitions with the most settled predictions. These are the regional cuts most useful for a specific desk.
| Competition | High-confidence accuracy | Settled picks |
|---|---|---|
| MLS | 72.4% | 110/152 |
| International Friendly | 74.7% | 109/146 |
| World Cup | 68.3% | 71/104 |
| Championship | 79.4% | 50/63 |
| Conference League - Qualification | 71.2% | 42/59 |
| La Liga | 74.1% | 43/58 |
| Serie A | 64.9% | 37/57 |
| Premier League | 72.5% | 37/51 |
| Eredivisie | 83.3% | 40/48 |
Only competitions with 20 or more settled High confidence picks are shown. Single-league samples are smaller than the full study, so treat them as indicative.
Bawler, The 2026 Football Prediction Accuracy Report, published 1 July 2026. Based on 1140 settled predictions across 55 competitions (18 March 2026–15 August 2026). Key figure: the free High confidence pick landed 73.8% (841/1140). Source data: bawler.ai/track-record.
Journalists and researchers are welcome to reproduce these figures. For the underlying data or a league-specific cut, the public ledger is the source of truth.