World Cup 2026 · Group A
Out · Round of 16
Out · Round of 16Mexico at World Cup 2026
Knocked out at Round of 16 — how their tournament played out
FIFA rank
#18
Official ranking
Knocked out
Round of 16
How far they got
Bawler's full forecast for Mexico at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — placed in Group A alongside South Africa, South Korea, and Czech Republic. Derived from 10,000 simulations of the entire tournament, updated each morning before kickoff.
Tournament path
Mexico's path to the trophy
Probability Mexico reaches each stage of the tournament, across 10,000 simulated tournaments.
Escape group
99.7%
Round of 16
100.0%
Quarter-finals
0.00%
Semi-finals
0.00%
Final
0.00%
Win it all
0.00%
Group A
Group A forecast
Top two from this group advance directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also progress to the Round of 32.
| Team | FIFA | Top 2 | R16 | QF | SF | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | #18 | 99.7% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
 South Africa | #58 | 94.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
 South Korea | #23 | 3.53% | 23.3% | 10.5% | 2.00% | 0.00% |
 Czech Republic | #33 | 2.73% | 16.9% | 7.27% | 1.36% | 0.00% |
Fixtures
Mexico's World Cup fixtures
5 matches — Bawler published a prediction for each.
11 Jun, 20:00FT
Mexico v South Africa2–0
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals70%
19 Jun, 02:00FT
Mexico v South Korea1–0
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals73%
25 Jun, 02:00FT
Czechia v Mexico0–3
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals75%
01 Jul, 02:00FT
Mexico v Ecuador2–0
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals81%
06 Jul, 01:00FT
Mexico v England2–3
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals80%