BAWLER
World Cup 2026 · Group L

England at World Cup 2026

Bawler's forecast across 10,000 simulated tournaments

FIFA rank
#4
Official ranking
Win the group
96.9%
Top two finish
Reach the last 16
93.9%
Round of 16
Win the cup
22.4%
Lift the trophy

Bawler's full forecast for England at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — placed in Group L alongside Croatia, Ghana, and Panama. Derived from 10,000 simulations of the entire tournament, updated each morning before kickoff.

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Tournament path

England's path to the trophy

Probability England reaches each stage of the tournament, across 10,000 simulated tournaments.

Escape group
96.9%
Round of 16
93.9%
Quarter-finals
80.8%
Semi-finals
62.5%
Final
40.2%
Win it all
22.4%

Group L

Group L forecast

Top two from this group advance directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also progress to the Round of 32.

TeamFIFATop 2R16QFSFWinner
England#496.9%93.9%80.8%62.5%22.4%
Croatia#960.9%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Ghana#6521.3%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Panama#4020.8%30.6%20.1%9.15%0.48%

Fixtures

England's World Cup fixtures

8 matches — Bawler published a prediction for each.

17 Jun, 21:00FT
England v Croatia4–2
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals73%
23 Jun, 21:00FT
England v Ghana0–0
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals76%
27 Jun, 22:00FT
Panama v England0–2
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals77%
01 Jul, 17:00FT
England v Congo DR2–1
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals81%
06 Jul, 01:00FT
Mexico v England2–3
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals80%
11 Jul, 22:00FT
Norway v England1–1
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals71%
15 Jul, 20:00FT
England v Argentina1–2
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals69%
18 Jul, 22:00FT
France v England4–6
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals75%