World Cup 2026 · Group H
Uruguay at World Cup 2026
Bawler's forecast across 10,000 simulated tournaments
FIFA rank
#14
Official ranking
Win the group
68.3%
Top two finish
Reach the last 16
74.0%
Round of 16
Win the cup
6.09%
Lift the trophy
Bawler's full forecast for Uruguay at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — placed in Group H alongside Spain, Cape Verde, and Saudi Arabia. Derived from 10,000 simulations of the entire tournament, updated each morning before kickoff.
Tournament path
Uruguay's path to the trophy
Probability Uruguay reaches each stage of the tournament, across 10,000 simulated tournaments.
Escape group
68.3%
Round of 16
74.0%
Quarter-finals
59.5%
Semi-finals
40.6%
Final
20.0%
Win it all
6.09%
Group H
Group H forecast
Top two from this group advance directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also progress to the Round of 32.
| Team | FIFA | Top 2 | R16 | QF | SF | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Spain | #2 | 98.0% | 95.5% | 85.1% | 69.8% | 33.8% |
| Uruguay | #14 | 68.3% | 74.0% | 59.5% | 40.6% | 6.09% |
 Cape Verde | #72 | 18.1% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
 Saudi Arabia | #50 | 15.6% | 27.0% | 17.2% | 7.39% | 0.18% |
Fixtures
Uruguay's World Cup fixtures
3 matches — Bawler published a prediction for each.