The Bawler Supercomputer: who wins the 2026 World Cup?
Every morning, Bawler plays out the whole World Cup 10,000 times and counts how often each nation lifts the trophy.
Current favourite: 
Spain at 33.8%.
Latest run: Sunday, 15 November 2026 · 10,000 simulations
Title chances · top 3
Favourites to lift the trophy
Spain
Argentina
EnglandFull board
Every remaining nation, ranked by title chance
26 nations still standing. “Title chance” is how often each won the whole tournament across 10,000 simulations; the knockout columns are the chance of reaching each round.
| # | Nation | QF | SF | Final | Win it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 85.1% | 69.8% | 51.3% | 33.8% |
| 2 | Argentina | 83.3% | 67.5% | 47.9% | 29.7% |
| 3 | England | 80.8% | 62.5% | 40.2% | 22.4% |
| 4 |  Uruguay | 59.5% | 40.6% | 20.0% | 6.09% |
| 5 |  Iran | 56.8% | 33.5% | 13.2% | 3.58% |
| 6 |  Scotland | 31.0% | 17.2% | 6.26% | 1.54% |
| 7 |  Uzbekistan | 45.1% | 22.7% | 6.68% | 0.99% |
| 8 |  Panama | 20.1% | 9.15% | 2.52% | 0.48% |
| 9 |  Tunisia | 13.2% | 5.93% | 1.60% | 0.27% |
| 10 |  Qatar | 29.3% | 11.0% | 1.94% | 0.20% |
| 11 |  Haiti | 14.3% | 6.77% | 1.73% | 0.18% |
| 12 |  Saudi Arabia | 17.2% | 7.39% | 1.87% | 0.18% |
| 13 |  Curacao | 22.2% | 8.96% | 1.96% | 0.15% |
| 14 |  Iraq | 6.87% | 2.78% | 0.75% | 0.09% |
| 15 |  South Korea | 10.5% | 2.00% | 0.07% | 0.00% |
| 16 |  Czech Republic | 7.27% | 1.36% | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| 17 |  Switzerland | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 18 |  Australia | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 19 |  Turkey | 0.11% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 20 |  Germany | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 21 |  Netherlands | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 22 |  New Zealand | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 23 |  Cape Verde | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 24 |  Senegal | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 25 |  Norway | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 26 |  Colombia | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Methodology
How the supercomputer works
Bawler forecasts every possible World Cup match — a full chance of a home win, draw or away win, built from recent form, squad strength and world ranking. It then plays out the rest of the tournament 10,000 times, drawing each result from those match probabilities and following the real bracket through to the Final. Each nation's title chance is simply how often it came out on top across all those runs.
The percentages reflect genuine uncertainty: even the favourite still has to string several knockout wins together, and a single upset ends a run instantly. That spread is real, not a missing favourite. Read the full approach on the methodology page.
Media & citations: please credit “the Bawler supercomputer (bawler.ai)” and link this page.Numbers reflect the run dated Sunday, 15 November 2026.