The Bawler Supercomputer: who wins the 2026 World Cup?

Through the tournament, Bawler played out the whole World Cup 10,000 times every morning and counted how often each nation lifted the trophy. It ended with the Final on 19 July 2026, so this page is now the settled record — how far each nation actually got — rather than a forecast. Here is how the forecasts actually did.

Champion: Spain — beat Argentina in the Final.

Final record · tournament ended 19 July 2026

Round-by-round forecast →Knockout schedule →How the model works →Verify the forecast →See today's free predictions →

Final standings · top 3

How it finished

#1 finish

Spain

Champion

how they finished

Group H · FIFA #2

#2 finish

Argentina

Runner-up

how they finished

Group J · FIFA #1

#3 finish

France

Semi-finals

how they finished

Group I · FIFA #3

Full board

Every nation, ranked by how far they got

All 48 nations, in finishing order. The tournament is settled, so each column below is a fact rather than a probability: 100% means the nation reached that round, 0% means it did not. Cite any figure — the record is publicly verifiable.

#	Nation	QF	SF	Final	Win it
1	Spain	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2	Argentina	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.00%
3	France	100.0%	100.0%	0.00%	0.00%
4	England	100.0%	100.0%	0.00%	0.00%
5	Belgium	100.0%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
6	Morocco	100.0%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
7	Switzerland	100.0%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Norway	100.0%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
9	Brazil	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
10	Portugal	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
11	Colombia	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
12	USA	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
13	Mexico	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
14	Egypt	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
15	Canada	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
16	Paraguay	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
17	Netherlands	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
18	Croatia	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
19	Germany	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
20	Japan	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
21	Senegal	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
22	Austria	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
23	Sweden	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
24	Australia	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
25	Ecuador	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
26	Algeria	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
27	Ivory Coast	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
28	DR Congo	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
29	South Africa	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
30	Bosnia & Herzegovina	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
31	Ghana	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
32	Cape Verde	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
33	Uruguay	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
34	Iran	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
35	South Korea	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
36	Tunisia	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
37	Czech Republic	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
38	Panama	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
39	Scotland	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
40	Turkey	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
41	Saudi Arabia	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
42	Iraq	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
43	Qatar	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
44	Uzbekistan	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
45	New Zealand	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
46	Jordan	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
47	Haiti	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
48	Curacao	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Methodology

How the supercomputer works

Bawler forecasts every possible World Cup match — a full chance of a home win, draw or away win, built from recent form, squad strength and world ranking. It then plays out the rest of the tournament 10,000 times, drawing each result from those match probabilities and following the real bracket through to the Final. Each nation's title chance is simply how often it came out on top across all those runs.

The percentages reflect genuine uncertainty: even the favourite still has to string several knockout wins together, and a single upset ends a run instantly. That spread is real, not a missing favourite. Read the full approach on the methodology page.

You can check we didn't change these numbers after the fact. Each morning's forecast is snapshotted and anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain before any of that day's matches kick off, so anyone can verify, offline, that the figures pre-date the results. See /verify for the proof files.

Media & citations: please credit “the Bawler supercomputer (bawler.ai)” and link this page.Numbers are the settled tournament record, frozen after the Final on 19 July 2026.