The Bawler Supercomputer: who wins the 2026 World Cup?
Every morning of the tournament, Bawler plays out the whole World Cup 10,000 times and counts how often each nation lifts the trophy. Below is the latest run, ranked by title chance — with the tournament now in the knockout stage and the Final on 19 July.
Current favourite: 
Mexico at 5.24% — but the field is tight, and no nation is a runaway pick.
Latest run: Wednesday, 1 July 2026 · 10,000 simulations
> title_odds.top(3)
Favourites to lift the trophy
Mexico
Brazil
France> title_odds.all()
Every remaining nation, ranked by title chance
42 nations still standing. “Title chance” is how often each won the whole tournament across 10,000 simulations; the knockout columns are the chance of reaching each round. Cite any figure below — the run is timestamped and publicly verifiable.
| # | Nation | QF | SF | Final | Win it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 28.9% | 16.3% | 9.26% | 5.24% |
| 2 | Brazil | 27.9% | 16.2% | 9.41% | 5.21% |
| 3 | France | 28.0% | 16.0% | 9.07% | 5.12% |
| 4 |  Spain | 28.6% | 16.8% | 9.45% | 5.09% |
| 5 |  Argentina | 28.3% | 16.0% | 9.01% | 5.08% |
| 6 |  USA | 27.7% | 15.4% | 8.71% | 5.05% |
| 7 |  Colombia | 30.1% | 16.4% | 8.88% | 4.59% |
| 8 |  England | 27.1% | 15.8% | 8.75% | 4.59% |
| 9 |  Belgium | 26.6% | 14.7% | 8.14% | 4.23% |
| 10 |  Portugal | 25.6% | 14.2% | 7.98% | 4.14% |
| 11 |  Morocco | 26.1% | 14.1% | 7.44% | 3.90% |
| 12 |  Netherlands | 24.0% | 13.5% | 7.26% | 3.66% |
| 13 |  Switzerland | 28.2% | 14.5% | 7.56% | 3.65% |
| 14 |  Croatia | 25.2% | 13.1% | 6.91% | 3.50% |
| 15 |  Uruguay | 24.8% | 12.7% | 6.62% | 3.37% |
| 16 |  Canada | 22.4% | 11.2% | 5.39% | 2.95% |
| 17 |  Iran | 22.1% | 10.8% | 5.21% | 2.56% |
| 18 |  Senegal | 21.0% | 10.6% | 5.08% | 2.54% |
| 19 |  Austria | 21.3% | 10.3% | 5.15% | 2.54% |
| 20 |  South Korea | 21.0% | 10.0% | 4.88% | 2.45% |
| 21 |  Australia | 20.9% | 10.4% | 5.00% | 2.26% |
| 22 |  Norway | 21.3% | 10.1% | 4.49% | 2.07% |
| 23 |  Egypt | 17.8% | 8.51% | 3.88% | 1.85% |
| 24 |  Tunisia | 18.3% | 8.74% | 4.06% | 1.71% |
| 25 |  Czech Republic | 19.5% | 8.64% | 3.63% | 1.61% |
| 26 |  Scotland | 18.3% | 8.33% | 3.45% | 1.52% |
| 27 |  Algeria | 16.6% | 7.72% | 3.43% | 1.38% |
| 28 |  Panama | 16.3% | 6.72% | 2.72% | 1.05% |
| 29 |  Turkey | 14.9% | 5.76% | 2.28% | 0.84% |
| 30 |  Paraguay | 12.1% | 5.09% | 1.88% | 0.74% |
| 31 |  Bosnia & Herzegovina | 11.3% | 4.42% | 1.63% | 0.64% |
| 32 |  Saudi Arabia | 13.0% | 5.08% | 1.82% | 0.62% |
| 33 |  Cape Verde | 9.28% | 3.72% | 1.39% | 0.60% |
| 34 |  Ghana | 11.0% | 4.13% | 1.57% | 0.59% |
| 35 |  Uzbekistan | 10.4% | 4.38% | 1.64% | 0.57% |
| 36 |  Iraq | 9.96% | 3.89% | 1.46% | 0.50% |
| 37 |  Qatar | 9.59% | 3.51% | 1.22% | 0.44% |
| 38 |  New Zealand | 10.2% | 3.70% | 1.16% | 0.37% |
| 39 |  Haiti | 7.78% | 2.92% | 1.04% | 0.33% |
| 40 |  Curacao | 6.09% | 1.96% | 0.53% | 0.23% |
| 41 |  Germany | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 42 |  DR Congo | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
> how_it_works()
How the supercomputer works
Bawler prices every possible World Cup match — a full chance of a home win, draw or away win, built from recent form, squad strength and world ranking. It then plays out the rest of the tournament 10,000 times, drawing each result from those match odds and following the real bracket through to the Final. Each nation's title chance is simply how often it came out on top across all those runs.
The percentages are deliberately flat: with the tournament still open, no single nation runs away with it, and a would-be winner has to string several knockout wins together. That is genuine uncertainty, not a missing favourite. Read the full approach on the methodology page.
You can check we didn't change these numbers after the fact. Each morning's forecast is snapshotted and anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain before any of that day's matches kick off, so anyone can verify, offline, that the figures pre-date the results. See /verify for the proof files.
Media & citations: please credit “the Bawler supercomputer (bawler.ai)” and link this page. Numbers reflect the run dated Wednesday, 1 July 2026 and refresh every morning through the knockout stage. Statistical analysis for entertainment, not betting advice. 18+.