FPL fixture difficulty · 2026/27
Over the next 5 gameweeks (GW1–GW5), Liverpool has the easiest FPL run (average official FDR 2.60) and Fulham the hardest (average official FDR 3.60). The full 20-club matrix below shows the official FDR and Bawler’s model-based rating side-by-side — including where the two disagree.
Updated 13 August 2026, 16:36 UK · Source: Official FPL API
Toggle Attack or Defence: the grid re-colours and re-sorts for the side of the pitch you are buying. Attack rates each fixture for that club’s forwards (how leaky the opponent is); Defence rates it for clean sheets (how blunt the opponent is). 1 = easiest, 5 = hardest. A leaky, high-scoring opponent is a great attack fixture and a poor defence one — one number can’t say that; this can.
| Club | GW1 | GW2 | GW3 | GW4 | GW5 | Avg (att / def) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man Utd | HULA A 2D 2 | IPSH A 1D 1 | EVEA A 3D 3 | MCIH A 3D 4 | FULA A 3D 2 | 2.4 / 2.4 |
| Crystal Palace | EVEA A 3D 3 | MCIH A 3D 4 | FULA A 3D 2 | IPSH A 1D 1 | LEEA A 3D 3 | 2.6 / 2.6 |
| Newcastle | LIVH A 3D 3 | TOTA A 3D 3 | BOUH A 3D 3 | LEEA A 3D 3 | HULH A 1D 1 | 2.6 / 2.6 |
| Everton | CRYH A 2D 2 | BOUA A 4D 4 | MUNH A 3D 4 | TOTA A 3D 3 | IPSH A 1D 1 | 2.6 / 2.8 |
| Nott'm Forest | LEEH A 3D 3 | LIVA A 3D 4 | TOTH A 2D 2 | AVLA A 3D 3 | COVH A 2D 2 | 2.6 / 2.8 |
| Brentford | TOTH A 2D 2 | LEEA A 3D 3 | SUNH A 2D 2 | BOUA A 4D 4 | CHEH A 3D 3 | 2.8 / 2.8 |
| Leeds | NFOA A 3D 3 | BREH A 3D 3 | BHAA A 4D 3 | NEWH A 2D 3 | CRYH A 2D 2 | 2.8 / 2.8 |
| Liverpool | NEWA A 3D 3 | NFOH A 3D 2 | IPSA A 2D 2 | FULH A 3D 2 | BOUA A 4D 4 | 3.0 / 2.6 |
| Man City | BOUH A 3D 3 | CRYA A 3D 3 | COVH A 2D 2 | MUNA A 4D 4 | SUNH A 2D 2 | 2.8 / 2.8 |
| Spurs | BREA A 3D 4 | NEWH A 2D 3 | NFOA A 3D 3 | EVEH A 2D 3 | AVLH A 3D 2 | 2.6 / 3.0 |
| Arsenal | COVH A 2D 2 | AVLA A 3D 3 | CHEH A 3D 3 | SUNA A 3D 3 | BHAA A 4D 3 | 3.0 / 2.8 |
| Hull City | MUNH A 3D 4 | COVA A 2D 2 | AVLH A 3D 2 | CHEA A 3D 4 | NEWA A 3D 3 | 2.8 / 3.0 |
| Chelsea | FULA A 3D 2 | BHAH A 4D 2 | ARSA A 5D 4 | HULH A 1D 1 | BREA A 3D 4 | 3.2 / 2.6 |
| Aston Villa | BHAA A 4D 3 | ARSH A 5D 3 | HULA A 2D 2 | NFOH A 3D 2 | TOTA A 3D 3 | 3.4 / 2.6 |
| Brighton | AVLH A 3D 2 | CHEA A 3D 4 | LEEH A 3D 3 | COVA A 2D 2 | ARSH A 5D 3 | 3.2 / 2.8 |
| Fulham | CHEH A 3D 3 | SUNA A 3D 3 | CRYH A 2D 2 | LIVA A 3D 4 | MUNH A 3D 4 | 2.8 / 3.2 |
| Ipswich Town | SUNH A 2D 2 | MUNA A 4D 4 | LIVH A 3D 3 | CRYA A 3D 3 | EVEA A 3D 3 | 3.0 / 3.0 |
| Coventry City | ARSA A 5D 4 | HULH A 1D 1 | MCIA A 4D 4 | BHAH A 4D 2 | NFOA A 3D 3 | 3.4 / 2.8 |
| Bournemouth | MCIA A 4D 4 | EVEH A 2D 3 | NEWA A 3D 3 | BREH A 3D 3 | LIVH A 3D 3 | 3.0 / 3.2 |
| Sunderland | IPSA A 2D 2 | FULH A 3D 2 | BREA A 3D 4 | ARSH A 5D 3 | MCIA A 4D 4 | 3.4 / 3.0 |
Pre-season ratings start from last season's scoring rates, which would quietly assume every club kept its squad. They didn't. Each club below is re-rated for the attacking output that verifiably left or arrived this window; the correction fades out automatically as real results replace it.
| Club | Attack rating | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham | ▼ 12% | Out: Issa Diop (1% of xGI), Raúl Jiménez (15% of xGI), Harry Wilson (13% of xGI) |
| Aston Villa | ▼ 11% | Out: Morgan Rogers (13% of xGI), Youri Tielemans (5% of xGI), Donyell Malen (5% of xGI), Lucas Digne (5% of xGI). In: Alejandro Garnacho (+9%, from Chelsea) |
| Newcastle | ▼ 10% | Out: Sandro Tonali (5% of xGI), Anthony Gordon (13% of xGI), Kieran Trippier (2% of xGI) |
| Liverpool | ▼ 8% | Out: Mohamed Salah (13% of xGI), Ibrahima Konate (2% of xGI) |
| Nott'm Forest | ▼ 6% | Out: Elliot Anderson (10% of xGI), Lorenzo Lucca (1% of xGI) |
| Bournemouth | ▼ 5% | Out: Marcos Senesi (7% of xGI), Alex Jimenez (3% of xGI) |
| Brighton | ▼ 4% | Out: Jan Paul van Hecke (5% of xGI), Brajan Gruda (3% of xGI), Joel Veltman (1% of xGI), James Milner (2% of xGI). In: Pascal Struijk (+4%, from Leeds) |
| Arsenal | ▼ 4% | Out: Leandro Trossard (8% of xGI) |
| Sunderland | ▼ 4% | Out: Eliezer Mayenda (4% of xGI), Bertrand Traore (1% of xGI), Lutsharel Geertruida (3% of xGI) |
| Everton | ▼ 3% | Out: Jack Grealish (7% of xGI) |
| Chelsea | ▼ 3% | Out: Andrey Santos (3% of xGI), Marc Cucurella (5% of xGI), Alejandro Garnacho (7% of xGI). In: Morgan Rogers (+10%, from Aston Villa), Maxence Lacroix (+3%, from Crystal Palace) |
| Brentford | ▲ 4% | Out: Jordan Henderson (3% of xGI). In: Jaidon Anthony (+8%, from Burnley), Callum Wilson (+8%, from West Ham) |
| Spurs | ▲ 5% | Out: Yves Bissouma (1% of xGI), Randal Kolo Muani (5% of xGI). In: Sandro Tonali (+7%, from Newcastle), Jan Paul van Hecke (+7%, from Brighton), Marcos Senesi (+9%, from Bournemouth) |
Corrections are computed from each player’s verified share of his club’s attacking involvement last season, halved to reflect that clubs partially replace what they lose — never hand-tuned, and capped so no single window repaints a club.
The official FPL Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR) grades every fixture 1–5 from each club's point of view — 1 is the easiest kind of opponent, 5 the hardest. It is a banding system built on opponent strength, so every trip to the same opponent scores the same. It is the number every fixture ticker you have seen is built on, and it comes straight from the Official FPL API.
Bawler's model FDR is different: our match model prices each actual fixture — this opponent, this venue, current form — as a win probability, the same engine behind our public track record. We convert that probability to the familiar 1–5 scale (60%+ to win = 1, easiest; under 18% = 5, hardest). When the two ratings disagree, that gap is the interesting bit — it flags runs of fixtures the standard ticker over- or under-rates, which is exactly where FPL managers find an edge picking transfers and captains.
The matrix rebuilds daily as fixtures, form and the model's probabilities move. Pair it with the price changes tracker to time transfers, or head back to the FPL gameweek hub. Pure analytics for a free fantasy game — no betting angle here.