Scotland v North Macedonia prediction
Scotland go into this UEFA Nations League match as strong favourites on our numbers: 81% to win, against 4% for North Macedonia and 14% for a draw. Our predicted score is Scotland 2–0 North Macedonia (17%), though no one exact score is likely on its own. Scotland are expected to score 2.4 goals and North Macedonia 0.4, 2.8 between them. Both teams scoring is only 31% and three or more goals is 54%.
Of their last three meetings on our records, Scotland have won two, North Macedonia none, and one was drawn. When they last met, it finished North Macedonia 0–2 Scotland, in Oct 2026. Scotland have one win, one draw and four defeats from their last six games, and lost the most recent.
On shots, our forecast is 18.8 for Scotland and 7.1 for North Macedonia, with 7.3 and 1.6 on target, and corners at 7.5 to 2.7. So we expect Scotland to do more of the shooting.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties.
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Scotland to win is 81% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Head to head
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who will win Scotland vs North Macedonia?
Bawler's model rates this match: Scotland are favoured (81% win probability vs 4% for North Macedonia, 14% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Scotland vs North Macedonia?
Bawler's predicted score is Scotland 2-0 North Macedonia: the most likely score if Scotland win, which is the likeliest result (81%). Our model puts that exact score at 17.1%. Expected total goals: 2.8.
How does Bawler predict Scotland vs North Macedonia?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Scotland 81%, the draw 14% and North Macedonia 4%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Scotland vs North Macedonia?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 31% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Scotland expecting 2.40 goals and North Macedonia 0.42.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Scotland vs North Macedonia?
Bawler's model expects 2.8 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 54%.
When are the Scotland v North Macedonia line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.