Northern Ireland should get at least a draw here. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Ukraine, and they have won two of the last three between them. The model sees around two goals in it.
The chances
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
Each bar is split by each side's share of the total.
What would change the call
Northern Ireland or draw is 77% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Each row is the call worked out again for that half-time score. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Northern Ireland · last 6
Ukraine · last 6
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?
Bawler's model rates this match: Northern Ireland are favoured (48% win probability vs 23% for Ukraine, 29% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Northern Ireland 1-0 Ukraine (13.5% probability). Expected total goals: 2.3.
How does Bawler predict Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Northern Ireland 48%, the draw 29% and Ukraine 23%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 46% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Northern Ireland expecting 1.43 goals and Ukraine 0.92.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?
Bawler's model expects 2.3 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 42%.