Switzerland are the model's pick, without being a certainty. They have won four of their last six, the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Slovenia, and they have won three of the last five between them. The model sees around three goals in it.
The chances
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
Each bar is split by each side's share of the total.
What would change the call
Switzerland to win is 74% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Each row is the call worked out again for that half-time score. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Slovenia · last 6
Switzerland · last 6
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Slovenia vs Switzerland?
Bawler's model rates this match: Switzerland are favoured (74% win probability vs 8% for Slovenia, 18% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Slovenia vs Switzerland?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Slovenia 0-2 Switzerland (14.9% probability). Expected total goals: 2.8.
How does Bawler predict Slovenia vs Switzerland?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Slovenia 8%, the draw 18% and Switzerland 74%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Slovenia vs Switzerland?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 39% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Slovenia expecting 0.58 goals and Switzerland 2.21.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Slovenia vs Switzerland?
Bawler's model expects 2.8 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 53%.