Estonia are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. It should be tight: the model sees around two goals in it.
The chances
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
Each bar is split by each side's share of the total.
What would change the call
Estonia or draw is 68% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Each row is the call worked out again for that half-time score. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Luxembourg · last 6
Estonia · last 6
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Luxembourg vs Estonia?
Bawler's model rates this match: Estonia are favoured (36% win probability vs 32% for Luxembourg, 32% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Luxembourg vs Estonia?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Luxembourg 1-1 Estonia (14.3% probability). Expected total goals: 2.1.
How does Bawler predict Luxembourg vs Estonia?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Luxembourg 32%, the draw 32% and Estonia 36%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Luxembourg vs Estonia?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 42% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Luxembourg expecting 1.01 goals and Estonia 1.10.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Luxembourg vs Estonia?
Bawler's model expects 2.1 goals in total. It leans towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is only 35%.