Austria should get at least a draw here. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Republic of Ireland. The model sees around three goals in it.
The chances
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
Each bar is split by each side's share of the total.
What would change the call
Austria or draw is 78% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Each row is the call worked out again for that half-time score. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Austria · last 6
Republic of Ireland · last 6
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Common questions
Who will win Austria vs Republic of Ireland?
Bawler's model rates this match: Austria are favoured (54% win probability vs 22% for Republic of Ireland, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Austria vs Republic of Ireland?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Austria 1-1 Republic of Ireland (11.6% probability). Expected total goals: 2.9.
How does Bawler predict Austria vs Republic of Ireland?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Austria 54%, the draw 25% and Republic of Ireland 22%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Austria vs Republic of Ireland?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 55% chance. That is based on Austria expecting 1.80 goals and Republic of Ireland 1.06.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Austria vs Republic of Ireland?
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 55%.