Kyrgyz Republic should win this one. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Chinese Taipei. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
The chances
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them. Each bar is split by each side's share of the total.
What would change the call
Kyrgyz Republic to win is 79% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Each row is the call worked out again for that half-time score. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Chinese Taipei · last 6
Kyrgyz Republic · last 4
First half — what we expect
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Common questions
Who will win Chinese Taipei vs Kyrgyz Republic?
Bawler's model rates this match: Kyrgyz Republic are favoured (79% win probability vs 7% for Chinese Taipei, 14% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Chinese Taipei vs Kyrgyz Republic?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Chinese Taipei 0-2 Kyrgyz Republic (11.5% probability). Expected total goals: 3.5.
How does Bawler predict Chinese Taipei vs Kyrgyz Republic?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Chinese Taipei 7%, the draw 14% and Kyrgyz Republic 79%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Chinese Taipei vs Kyrgyz Republic?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Chinese Taipei expecting 0.74 goals and Kyrgyz Republic 2.76.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Chinese Taipei vs Kyrgyz Republic?
Bawler's model expects 3.5 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 68%.