Argentina v Uruguay prediction
Our model gives Argentina an 80% chance of winning this International friendlies game. A Uruguay win is 6% and a draw 15%. If you want one score, our predicted score is Argentina 2–0 Uruguay, at 15%. We expect 3.1 goals in total: 2.5 for Argentina and 0.5 for Uruguay. Both teams scoring is only 39% and three or more goals is 59%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Argentina have won four, Uruguay one. When they last met, it finished Uruguay 0–1 Argentina, in Mar 2025. Argentina have five wins, no draws and one defeat from their last six games, and lost the most recent.
On shots, our forecast is 12.7 for Argentina and 7.4 for Uruguay, with 5.8 and 2.1 on target, and corners at 5.7 to 2.4. So we expect Argentina to do more of the shooting.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties.
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Argentina · last 6
Uruguay · last 6
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Argentina to win is 80% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who will win Argentina vs Uruguay?
Bawler's model rates this match: Argentina are favoured (80% win probability vs 6% for Uruguay, 15% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Argentina vs Uruguay?
Bawler's predicted score is Argentina 2-0 Uruguay: the most likely score if Argentina win, which is the likeliest result (80%). Our model puts that exact score at 14.7%. Expected total goals: 3.1.
How does Bawler predict Argentina vs Uruguay?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Argentina 80%, the draw 15% and Uruguay 6%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Argentina vs Uruguay?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 39% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Argentina expecting 2.52 goals and Uruguay 0.55.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Argentina vs Uruguay?
Bawler's model expects 3.1 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 59%.
When are the Argentina v Uruguay line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.