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Qatar vs Australia prediction — International friendlies · Fri 13 Nov · 14:45 UK

International friendlies · Fri 13 Nov · 14:45 UK
8Qatar win21Draw71Australia win
Australia to win has not moved in a day — steady at 71%
The call
71%
Australia to win
Calls on the result published at 70–75% have landed 67% of the time
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13d 05hUntil lineups lock

Australia are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Qatar. The model sees around two goals in it.

The chances

Australia to score85%
3 goals or fewer−1 in 1 day77%
2 or more goals70%
Both teams to score — no67%
Goal before half-time66%
3 or more goals43%
Both teams score33%

What we expect from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

QatarQatarAustraliaAustralia
0.5Goals1.9
usually 0.8usually 1.0
8.4Shots10.9
usually 8.2usually 8.7
2.5On target3.8
usually 2.8usually 2.7
4.1Corners4.7
usually 3.0usually 4.8
QatarQatarAustraliaAustralia
0.2Goals0.9
3.8Shots5.0
usually 3.8usually 4.7
1.1On target1.7
usually 1.0usually 1.7
1.9Corners2.2
usually 1.3usually 3.3
QatarQatarAustraliaAustralia
0.3Goals1.1
4.6Shots5.9
1.4On target2.1
2.2Corners2.5

Each bar is split by each side's share of the total.

What would change the call

Australia to win is 71% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:

Qatar lead 1–0 at half-time21%
Australia lead 1–0 at half-time90%
Goalless at half-time53%

Each row is the call worked out again for that half-time score. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.

Qatar · last 6

Dat Saudi Arabia0–02 shots
Dv UAE1–14 shots
Wv Yemen1–020 shots
Wv Bahrain2–012 shots
Lv Bosnia and Herzegovina1–39 shots
Lat Canada0–62 shots

Australia · last 6

Lv Brazil2–47 shots
Dv Brazil1–17 shots
Dv Egypt1–112 shots
Dv Paraguay0–012 shots
Lv USA0–25 shots
Wv Turkiye2–09 shots

First half — what we expect

Qatar
19%
to score before half-time
Australia
57%
to score before half-time

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.

QatarQatarAustraliaAustralia
49%4+ shots66%
22%6+ shots37%
62%1+ shots on target77%
12%3+ shots on target25%
80%1+ corners84%
30%3+ corners37%

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

Head to head

Oct 2014Qatar 1–0 Australia
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Common questions

Who will win Qatar vs Australia?

Bawler's model rates this match: Australia are favoured (71% win probability vs 8% for Qatar, 21% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Qatar vs Australia?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Qatar 0-1 Australia (17.0% probability). Expected total goals: 2.4.

How does Bawler predict Qatar vs Australia?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Qatar 8%, the draw 21% and Australia 71%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Qatar vs Australia?

Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 33% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Qatar expecting 0.49 goals and Australia 1.93.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Qatar vs Australia?

Bawler's model expects 2.4 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 43%.

Around this fixture

Qatar
All fixtures & results →Qatar form →Australia form →