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Bahrain vs Yemen prediction — International friendlies · Sat 14 Nov · 06:00 UK

International friendlies · Sat 14 Nov · 06:00 UK
10Bahrain win16Draw74Yemen win
The call
74%
Yemen to win
Calls on the result published at 70–75% have landed 67% of the time
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13d 20hUntil lineups lock

Yemen are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Bahrain. Expect goals: the model sees around four.

The chances

Yemen to score93%
2 or more goals87%
Goal before half-time79%
3 or more goals68%
Both teams score55%

What we expect from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

BahrainBahrainYemen
0.9Goals2.6
usually 1.0usually 3.0
11.7Shots10.8
usually 8.2usually 8.7
3.2On target4.9
usually 2.2usually 3.0
5.5Corners3.8
usually 4.2usually 3.0
BahrainBahrainYemen
0.4Goals1.2
5.3Shots4.9
usually 3.3usually 3.7
1.5On target2.2
usually 1.2usually 2.0
2.6Corners1.8
usually 1.5usually 2.3
BahrainBahrainYemen
0.5Goals1.5
6.3Shots5.9
1.8On target2.7
2.9Corners2.0

Each bar is split by each side's share of the total.

What would change the call

Yemen to win is 74% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:

Bahrain lead 1–0 at half-time28%
Yemen lead 1–0 at half-time87%
Goalless at half-time58%

Each row is the call worked out again for that half-time score. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.

Bahrain · last 6

Lv Yemen2–59 shots
Lv UAE0–34 shots
Lv Qatar0–29 shots
Lat Georgia0–206/05
Wv Sudan3–112 shots
Lv Algeria1–54 shots

Yemen · last 6

Wv Bahrain5–216 shots
Lv Qatar0–18 shots
Lv UAE0–42 shots
Wv Lebanon2–006/04
Dv Comoros4–411/26
Wv Bhutan7–111/18

First half — what we expect

Bahrain
33%
to score before half-time
Yemen
69%
to score before half-time

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.

BahrainBahrainYemen
71%4+ shots66%
43%6+ shots37%
72%1+ shots on target86%
20%3+ shots on target37%
68%2+ corners50%
27%4+ corners14%

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

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Common questions

Who will win Bahrain vs Yemen?

Bawler's model rates this match: Yemen are favoured (74% win probability vs 10% for Bahrain, 16% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Bahrain vs Yemen?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Bahrain 0-2 Yemen (10.0% probability). Expected total goals: 3.5.

How does Bawler predict Bahrain vs Yemen?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Bahrain 10%, the draw 16% and Yemen 74%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Bahrain vs Yemen?

Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 55% chance. That is based on Bahrain expecting 0.91 goals and Yemen 2.63.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Bahrain vs Yemen?

Bawler's model expects 3.5 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 68%.