Ecuador should win this one. They have lost four of their last six, and the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Costa Rica. The model sees around three goals in it.
The chances
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
Each bar is split by each side's share of the total.
What would change the call
Ecuador to win is 75% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Each row is the call worked out again for that half-time score. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Ecuador · last 6
Costa Rica · last 6
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Common questions
Who will win Ecuador vs Costa Rica?
Bawler's model rates this match: Ecuador are favoured (75% win probability vs 7% for Costa Rica, 18% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Ecuador vs Costa Rica?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Ecuador 2-0 Costa Rica (16.0% probability). Expected total goals: 2.7.
How does Bawler predict Ecuador vs Costa Rica?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Ecuador 75%, the draw 18% and Costa Rica 7%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Ecuador vs Costa Rica?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 35% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Ecuador expecting 2.16 goals and Costa Rica 0.51.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Ecuador vs Costa Rica?
Bawler's model expects 2.7 goals in total. Three or more goals is a coin flip: over 2.5 goals is 50%.