Paraguay go into this International friendlies match as strong favourites on our numbers: 82% to win, against 4% for Singapore and 14% for a draw. Our predicted score is Singapore 0–2 Paraguay (17%), though no one exact score is likely on its own. Singapore are expected to score 0.4 goals and Paraguay 2.4, 2.8 between them. There is a 30% chance both sides score and three or more goals is 54%.
Singapore have two wins, one draw and three defeats from their last six games, and lost the most recent.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Paraguay to win is 82% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Bawler's model rates this match: Paraguay are favoured (82% win probability vs 4% for Singapore, 14% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
Bawler's predicted score is Singapore 0-2 Paraguay: the most likely score if Paraguay win, which is the likeliest result (82%). Our model puts that exact score at 17.4%. Expected total goals: 2.8.
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Singapore 4%, the draw 14% and Paraguay 82%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 30% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Singapore expecting 0.39 goals and Paraguay 2.45.
Bawler's model expects 2.8 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 54%.
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.