Iran are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model sees around three goals in it.
The chances
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
Each bar is split by each side's share of the total.
What would change the call
Iran or draw is 70% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Each row is the call worked out again for that half-time score. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Palestine · last 6
Iran · last 6
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Common questions
Who will win Palestine vs Iran?
Bawler's model rates this match: Iran are favoured (43% win probability vs 30% for Palestine, 28% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Palestine vs Iran?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Palestine 1-1 Iran (13.1% probability). Expected total goals: 2.6.
How does Bawler predict Palestine vs Iran?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Palestine 30%, the draw 28% and Iran 43%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Palestine vs Iran?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. That is based on Palestine expecting 1.16 goals and Iran 1.45.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Palestine vs Iran?
Bawler's model expects 2.6 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 48%.