Serbia v Germany prediction
Our model gives Germany an 86% chance of winning this UEFA Nations League game. A Serbia win is 3% and a draw 11%. Our predicted score is Serbia 0–2 Germany (14%), though no one exact score is likely on its own. We expect 3.4 goals in total: 0.5 for Serbia and 2.9 for Germany. Both teams scoring is only 36% and three or more goals is 66%.
Of their last three meetings on our records, Serbia and Germany have one win each, with one draw. When they last met, it finished Germany 2–0 Serbia, in Oct 2026. Germany have one win, three draws and two defeats from their last six games, and drew the most recent.
On shots, our forecast is 8.8 for Serbia and 20.3 for Germany, with 2.7 and 7.3 on target, and corners at 4.3 to 5.4. So we expect Germany to do more of the shooting.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties.
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Germany to win is 86% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Head to head
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who will win Serbia vs Germany?
Bawler's model rates this match: Germany are favoured (86% win probability vs 3% for Serbia, 11% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Serbia vs Germany?
Bawler's predicted score is Serbia 0-2 Germany: the most likely score if Germany win, which is the likeliest result (86%). Our model puts that exact score at 14.4%. Expected total goals: 3.4.
How does Bawler predict Serbia vs Germany?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Serbia 3%, the draw 11% and Germany 86%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Serbia vs Germany?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 36% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Serbia expecting 0.47 goals and Germany 2.90.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Serbia vs Germany?
Bawler's model expects 3.4 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 66%.
When are the Serbia v Germany line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.