Kazakhstan should get at least a draw here. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Moldova. The model sees around three goals in it.
The chances
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
Each bar is split by each side's share of the total.
What would change the call
Kazakhstan or draw is 80% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Each row is the call worked out again for that half-time score. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Moldova · last 6
Kazakhstan · last 6
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Moldova vs Kazakhstan?
Bawler's model rates this match: Kazakhstan are favoured (57% win probability vs 20% for Moldova, 23% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Moldova vs Kazakhstan?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Moldova 1-1 Kazakhstan (11.0% probability). Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Moldova vs Kazakhstan?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Moldova 20%, the draw 23% and Kazakhstan 57%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Moldova vs Kazakhstan?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 55% chance. That is based on Moldova expecting 1.05 goals and Kazakhstan 1.91.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Moldova vs Kazakhstan?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 57%.