South Korea are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model sees around two goals in it.
The chances
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
Each bar is split by each side's share of the total.
What would change the call
South Korea or draw is 66% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Each row is the call worked out again for that half-time score. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Saudi Arabia · last 6
South Korea · last 6
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Common questions
Who will win Saudi Arabia vs South Korea?
Bawler's model rates this match: South Korea are favoured (36% win probability vs 34% for Saudi Arabia, 30% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Saudi Arabia vs South Korea?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Saudi Arabia 1-1 South Korea (14.0% probability). Expected total goals: 2.3.
How does Bawler predict Saudi Arabia vs South Korea?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Saudi Arabia 34%, the draw 30% and South Korea 36%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Saudi Arabia vs South Korea?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 47% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Saudi Arabia expecting 1.14 goals and South Korea 1.17.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Saudi Arabia vs South Korea?
Bawler's model expects 2.3 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 41%.