Portugal are the model's pick, without being a certainty. They have won five of their last six, the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Denmark, and they have won four of the last five between them. The model sees around three goals in it.
The chances
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
Each bar is split by each side's share of the total.
What would change the call
Portugal to win is 69% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Each row is the call worked out again for that half-time score. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Portugal · last 6
Denmark · last 6
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Portugal vs Denmark?
Bawler's model rates this match: Portugal are favoured (69% win probability vs 12% for Denmark, 19% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Portugal vs Denmark?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Portugal 2-0 Denmark (10.6% probability). Expected total goals: 3.2.
How does Bawler predict Portugal vs Denmark?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Portugal 69%, the draw 19% and Denmark 12%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Portugal vs Denmark?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 54% chance. That is based on Portugal expecting 2.33 goals and Denmark 0.91.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Portugal vs Denmark?
Bawler's model expects 3.2 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 63%.