Tahiti v Cook Islands prediction
Our model gives Tahiti 55%, the draw 22% and Cook Islands 23%, so Tahiti start as favourites. If you want one score, our predicted score is Tahiti 2–1 Cook Islands, the most likely Tahiti win (9%). Our expected goals are 2.1 for Tahiti and 1.3 for Cook Islands, 3.4 in all. Both teams scoring is 64% and three or more goals is 66%.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties.
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
More chances
First half — what we expect
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Tahiti or draw is 77% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who will win Tahiti vs Cook Islands?
Bawler's model rates this match: Tahiti are favoured (55% win probability vs 23% for Cook Islands, 22% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Tahiti vs Cook Islands?
Bawler's predicted score is Tahiti 2-1 Cook Islands: the most likely score if Tahiti win, which is the likeliest result (55%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.5%. Expected total goals: 3.4.
How does Bawler predict Tahiti vs Cook Islands?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Tahiti 55%, the draw 22% and Cook Islands 23%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Tahiti vs Cook Islands?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 64% chance. That is based on Tahiti expecting 2.08 goals and Cook Islands 1.30.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Tahiti vs Cook Islands?
Bawler's model expects 3.4 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 66%.
When are the Tahiti v Cook Islands line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.