Iraq v Lebanon prediction
Iraq are favourites on our numbers: 40% to win, against 32% for Lebanon and 29% for a draw. Our predicted score is Iraq 1–0 Lebanon: the most likely score if Iraq win, at 11%. Iraq are expected to score 1.3 goals and Lebanon 1.2, 2.5 between them. Both sides are more likely than not to score (50%) and three or more goals is 45%.
Iraq have one win, one draw and four defeats from their last six games, and lost the most recent.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties.
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
More chances
Iraq · last 6
Lebanon · last 6
First half — what we expect
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Iraq or draw is 68% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who will win Iraq vs Lebanon?
Bawler's model rates this match: Iraq are favoured (40% win probability vs 32% for Lebanon, 29% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Iraq vs Lebanon?
Bawler's predicted score is Iraq 1-0 Lebanon: the most likely score if Iraq win, which is the likeliest result (40%). Our model puts that exact score at 10.9%. Expected total goals: 2.5.
How does Bawler predict Iraq vs Lebanon?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Iraq 40%, the draw 29% and Lebanon 32%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Iraq vs Lebanon?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. That is based on Iraq expecting 1.32 goals and Lebanon 1.15.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Iraq vs Lebanon?
Bawler's model expects 2.5 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 45%.
When are the Iraq v Lebanon line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.