Malaysia are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than China. The model sees around three goals in it.
The chances
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them. Each bar is split by each side's share of the total.
What would change the call
Malaysia to win is 71% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Each row is the call worked out again for that half-time score. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
China · last 6
Malaysia · last 6
First half — what we expect
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Common questions
Who will win China vs Malaysia?
Bawler's model rates this match: Malaysia are favoured (71% win probability vs 10% for China, 20% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for China vs Malaysia?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is China 0-2 Malaysia (14.4% probability). Expected total goals: 2.7.
How does Bawler predict China vs Malaysia?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives China 10%, the draw 20% and Malaysia 71%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in China vs Malaysia?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 41% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on China expecting 0.63 goals and Malaysia 2.07.
Over or under 2.5 goals in China vs Malaysia?
Bawler's model expects 2.7 goals in total. Three or more goals is a coin flip: over 2.5 goals is 50%.