Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelAston Villa on top, with Nicolas Jackson our likeliest to test the keeper.
Aston Villa v Sunderland prediction
Our model makes Aston Villa favourites for this Premier League game, giving them a 53% chance of winning. Sunderland are 22% and the draw is 25%. Our predicted score is Aston Villa 1–0 Sunderland, the likeliest Aston Villa win score (10%). We expect 2.8 goals in total: 1.8 for Aston Villa and 1.1 for Sunderland. Both teams scoring is 54% and three or more goals is 53%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Aston Villa have won three, Sunderland one, and one was drawn. When they last met, it finished Aston Villa 4–3 Sunderland, in Apr 2026. Nicolas Jackson is the player we expect to shoot most: 3.6 shots and 1.4 on target for Aston Villa, if they start. For cards, Matty Cash (Aston Villa) has been booked about once a game in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here.
On shots, our forecast is 17.3 for Aston Villa and 10.0 for Sunderland, with 5.4 and 3.7 on target, and corners at 5.7 to 3.4. So we expect Aston Villa to do more of the shooting. In their last six games Aston Villa have three wins, one draw and two defeats, while Sunderland have one win, two draws and three defeats. Both lost their most recent match. Bawler's pick combines Aston Villa or Draw, Aston Villa Over 12.5 Shots and Nicolas Jackson 1+ Shot on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 52%, a fair price of 10/11 (1.92).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Aston Villa · last 6
Sunderland · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Aston Villa or draw is 78% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Premier League table →Common questions
Who will win Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Bawler's model rates this match: Aston Villa are favoured (53% win probability vs 22% for Sunderland, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Bawler's predicted score is Aston Villa 1-0 Sunderland: the most likely score if Aston Villa win, which is the likeliest result (53%). Our model puts that exact score at 10.5%. Expected total goals: 2.8.
How does Bawler predict Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Aston Villa 53%, the draw 25% and Sunderland 22%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 54% chance. That is based on Aston Villa expecting 1.76 goals and Sunderland 1.05.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Bawler's model expects 2.8 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 53%.
When are the Aston Villa v Sunderland line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Aston Villa v Sunderland?
Aston Villa or Draw (78%), Aston Villa Over 12.5 Shots (82%), Nicolas Jackson 1+ Shot on Target (71%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 52% chance, a fair price of 10/11 (1.92). 18+, please gamble responsibly.