Bawler / PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal / Alverca

Team profile · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal

Alverca Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches

5 settled

Goals for

1.29

Expected, per match

Goals against

1.46

Expected, per match

High-confidence accuracy

80%

4/5 calls

Alverca prediction: for Alverca's next match — Alverca vs Estrela on Saturday 15 Aug, 14:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Alverca win looks most likely (55%). The model's strongest call is Over 1.5 Goals.

Alverca sit close to the Liga Portugal average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.29 expected goals a game and conceding 1.46. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 0.40 goals a game against 1.29 expected. They have struggled lately, losing 4 of their last 5. Next up is Estrela, where the model makes them clear favourites at 55%.

Next match

Home vs Estrela · Saturday 15 Aug, 14:30 UTC

Win

55%

Alverca

Draw

29%

Loss

16%

Estrela

High confidence · Over 1.5 Goals @ 79%

Full match preview

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record

0W 1D 4L

Real goals

0.4 – 1.8

For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Alverca compare with the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal average, per match.

Goals for

1.29

Below average

Goals against

1.46

Leakier than most

Scored1.29

Conceded1.46

The grey line on each bar is the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal average (1.36 scored, 1.38 conceded).

What the data says

Model is strongest on: Result

High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Alverca fixtures (3/3).

📊 Alverca in numbers

35 competitive matches · friendlies excluded

1.0

Goals · per game

let in 1.5

🏠 1.1✈️ 0.9

4.5

Corners · per game

give up 4.6

🏠 4.7✈️ 4.4

9.8

Shots · per game

faced 13.6

🏠 10.6✈️ 9.1

3.6

On target · per game

faced 4.4

🏠 3.6✈️ 3.6

🗓️ Last 6 games

09 Aug

0-2

@ Porto

🚩 9-7

16 May

0-1

@ Famalicao

🚩 5-6

10 May

1-1

vs Estoril

🚩 4-4

02 May

0-1

@ Porto

🚩 4-5

24 Apr

2-1

vs Arouca

🚩 6-3

18 Apr

0-1

@ Nacional

🚩 8-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Alverca matches

80%

of high-confidence calls correct, over 5

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Alverca fixture, it is right 4 out of 5 (80%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on Alverca by market

Result100%3/3

Goals (Over/Under)50%1/2

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on Alverca fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Alverca matches.