Bawler / PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal / Estrela
Team profile · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal

Estrela Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
6
5 settled
Goals for
1.38
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.43
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
80%
4/5 calls

Estrela prediction: for Estrela's next match — Alverca vs Estrela on Saturday 15 Aug, 14:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Alverca are favoured (55%). The model's strongest call is Over 1.5 Goals.

Estrela sit close to the Liga Portugal average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.38 expected goals a game and conceding 1.43. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 1.80 a game against 1.38 expected. Next up is a trip to Alverca, where the model has them as underdogs at 16%.

Next match

Away vs Alverca · Saturday 15 Aug, 14:30 UTC

Win
16%
Estrela
Draw
29%
Loss
55%
Alverca
High confidence · Over 1.5 Goals @ 79%
Full match preview

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
1W 3D 1L
Real goals
1.8 – 1.2
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Estrela compare with the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal average, per match.

Goals for
1.38
Above average
Goals against
1.43
Leakier than most
Scored1.38
Conceded1.43

The grey line on each bar is the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal average (1.36 scored, 1.38 conceded).

📊 Estrela in numbers

35 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.1
Goals · per game
let in 1.7
🏠 1.3✈️ 1.0
3.4
Corners · per game
give up 5.7
🏠 3.7✈️ 3.1
10.7
Shots · per game
faced 13.5
🏠 12.8✈️ 8.6
3.6
On target · per game
faced 4.7
🏠 3.9✈️ 3.2
🗓️ Last 6 games
08 Aug
2-2
vs Sporting
🚩 5-4
16 May
2-2
@ Braga
🚩 1-7
11 May
0-0
vs Famalicao
🚩 3-10
02 May
2-3
@ Moreirense
🚩 4-1
26 Apr
1-2
vs Porto
🚩 0-6
19 Apr
0-1
@ Arouca
🚩 3-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Estrela matches
80%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 5

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Estrela fixture, it is right 4 out of 5 (80%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on Estrela by market
Goals (Over/Under)100%2/2
Result100%2/2

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on Estrela fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Estrela matches.

Recent matches (last 5)

Estrela prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly