Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelBenfica on top, with Vangelis Pavlidis our likeliest to test the keeper.
Viktoria Plzen v Benfica prediction
Our model makes Benfica favourites for this Europa League game, giving them a 59% chance of winning. Viktoria Plzen are 18% and the draw is 23%. If you want one score, our predicted score is Viktoria Plzen 0–1 Benfica, the most likely Benfica win (10%). Viktoria Plzen are expected to score 1.0 goals and Benfica 2.0, 2.9 between them. Both teams scoring is 54% and three or more goals is 56%.
On shots, our forecast is 10.9 for Viktoria Plzen and 19.3 for Benfica, with 3.6 and 5.1 on target, and corners at 3.7 to 7.0. So we expect Benfica to do more of the shooting. Viktoria Plzen come in with three wins, one draw and two defeats in their last six. Benfica have six wins, no draws and no defeats over the same run.
Vangelis Pavlidis is the player we expect to shoot most: 3.1 shots and 1.4 on target for Benfica, if they start. For cards, Tomás Araújo (Benfica) has been booked once every 3 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here. Bawler's pick for this game is Benfica or Draw, Benfica Over 14.5 Shots and Vangelis Pavlidis 1+ Shot on Target. Our model gives all three landing together a 54% chance, which makes the fair price 5/6 (1.86).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Viktoria Plzen · last 6
Benfica · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Benfica or draw is 82% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Liga Portugal table →Common questions
Who will win Viktoria Plzen vs Benfica?
Bawler's model rates this match: Benfica are favoured (59% win probability vs 18% for Viktoria Plzen, 23% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Viktoria Plzen vs Benfica?
Bawler's predicted score is Viktoria Plzen 0-1 Benfica: the most likely score if Benfica win, which is the likeliest result (59%). Our model puts that exact score at 10.2%. Expected total goals: 2.9.
How does Bawler predict Viktoria Plzen vs Benfica?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Viktoria Plzen 18%, the draw 23% and Benfica 59%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Viktoria Plzen vs Benfica?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 54% chance. That is based on Viktoria Plzen expecting 0.98 goals and Benfica 1.95.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Viktoria Plzen vs Benfica?
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 56%.
When are the Viktoria Plzen v Benfica line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Viktoria Plzen v Benfica?
Benfica or Draw (82%), Benfica Over 14.5 Shots (80%), Vangelis Pavlidis 1+ Shot on Target (71%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 54% chance, a fair price of 5/6 (1.86). 18+, please gamble responsibly.