Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelSouthampton on top: we expect them to avoid defeat and do most of the shooting.
Southampton v Derby County prediction
Our model makes Southampton clear favourites for this Championship game, with a 64% chance of winning. Derby County are given 15%, and the draw 21%. Our predicted score is Southampton 2–0 Derby County (10%), though no one exact score is likely on its own. Southampton are expected to score 2.2 goals and Derby County 1.0, 3.2 between them. Both teams scoring is 56% and three or more goals is 61%.
On shots, our forecast is 18.8 for Southampton and 10.7 for Derby County, with 5.7 and 3.4 on target, and corners at 7.2 to 3.6. So we expect Southampton to do more of the shooting. Léo Scienza is the player we expect to shoot most: 3.0 shots and 0.9 on target for Southampton, if they start. For cards, Rhian Brewster (Derby County) has been booked about once a game in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Southampton and Derby County have one win each, with three draws. When they last met, it finished Southampton 2–1 Derby County, in Apr 2026. On form, Southampton have three wins, two draws and one defeat from their last six games, and Derby County have one win, one draw and four defeats. Bawler's pick combines Southampton or Draw, Southampton Over 14.5 Shots and Southampton Over 3.5 Shots on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 55%, a fair price of 4/5 (1.80).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Southampton · last 6
Derby County · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Southampton to win is 64% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Championship table →Common questions
Who will win Southampton vs Derby County?
Bawler's model rates this match: Southampton are favoured (64% win probability vs 15% for Derby County, 21% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Southampton vs Derby County?
Bawler's predicted score is Southampton 2-0 Derby County: the most likely score if Southampton win, which is the likeliest result (64%). Our model puts that exact score at 10.0%. Expected total goals: 3.2.
How does Bawler predict Southampton vs Derby County?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Southampton 64%, the draw 21% and Derby County 15%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Southampton vs Derby County?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 56% chance. That is based on Southampton expecting 2.18 goals and Derby County 0.98.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Southampton vs Derby County?
Bawler's model expects 3.2 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 61%.
When are the Southampton v Derby County line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Southampton v Derby County?
Southampton or Draw (85%), Southampton Over 14.5 Shots (78%), Southampton Over 3.5 Shots on Target (78%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 55% chance, a fair price of 4/5 (1.80). 18+, please gamble responsibly.