Championship · Team page

Derby

FormWLLLD

67%

Our hit rate on DER

Forecasts settled

7th

Model strength rank

Fixture run · next 1

Colour = model difficulty for Derby

WRE (H)

10 Oct

Season averages · per game

Bar = vs Championship average · 57 matches

11.1lge avg 12.9

Shots per game

3.7lge avg 4.2

Shots on target per game

1.4lge avg 1.3

Goals scored per game

1.4lge avg 1.4

Goals conceded per game

1.1lge avg 1.3

xG for per game

1.3lge avg 1.3

xG against per game

52%lge avg 50%

Possession

4.8lge avg 5.2

Corners per game

Next fixture · Sat 10 Oct 15:00

Derbyvs

Wrexham

Medium confidence · Both teams to score54%

Derby win41%

Draw27%

Wrexham win31%

Most likely score1-1 · 12%

Under 2.5 goals50%

Both teams to scoreYes · 54%

Publishes 07:30 UK · locks at lineupsFull match preview →

Key players · attacking outputPer 90 · this season

Lars-Jørgen SalvesenFWD · 0.38 xG per 900.38

Carlton MorrisFWD · 0.24 xG per 900.24

Ryan HedgesMID · 0.22 xG per 900.22

Our record on Derby · settled in publicFull track record →

19 SeptBurnley v DerbyOver 1.5 goals78%WON

12 SeptDerby v BirminghamDerby or draw67%LOST

9 SeptDerby v West BromDerby or draw67%LOST

5 SeptWest Ham v DerbyWest Ham to win65%WON

Derby· continues from the hero above57 competitive matches · friendlies excluded · updated daily

Form · last 6

Newest first · click a tile for the settled forecast

DRAW1–1@ Burnley19 Sept LOSS1–2vs Birmingham12 Sept LOSS0–1vs West Brom9 Sept LOSS0–3@ West Ham5 Sept WIN2–0@ Portsmouth1 Sept LOSS0–3vs Swansea29 Aug

Full match1st half2nd half

At home · per gameThey produceThey allow

Goals1.31.4

Shots12.012.0

On target3.84.1

Corners5.84.6

Away · per gameThey produceThey allow

Goals1.51.4

Shots10.214.6

On target3.54.8

Corners3.86.4

At home · per game · 1st halfThey produceThey allow

Goals0.60.7

Shots5.05.3

On target1.71.9

Corners2.62.0

27 of the 30 matches counted carry a half-by-half breakdown.

Away · per game · 1st halfThey produceThey allow

Goals0.70.5

Shots4.46.9

On target1.52.1

Corners1.73.0

All 27 matches counted carry a half-by-half breakdown.

At home · per game · 2nd halfThey produceThey allow

Goals0.70.6

Shots7.16.4

On target2.02.1

Corners3.32.4

27 of the 30 matches counted carry a half-by-half breakdown.

Away · per game · 2nd halfThey produceThey allow

Goals0.70.9

Shots5.87.7

On target2.02.7

Corners2.03.4

All 27 matches counted carry a half-by-half breakdown.

Squad · 30 players

Coach John Eustace · ★ = model's key threats · from FotMob, 24 Sept 2026

Goalkeepers

Nicholas Bilokapić24 · AUS

1Jacob Widell Zetterström28 · SWE

1Sam Kane20 · SCO

12Richard O'Donnell38 · ENG

31Josh Vickers30 · ENG

Defenders

2Derry Murkin27 · ENG

3Craig Forsyth37 · SCO

5Matthew Clarke30 · ENG

6Sondre Klingen Langås25 · NOR

18Charlie Taylor33 · ENG

+5 more

22Max Johnston22 · SCO

23Joe Ward31 · ENG

24Ryan Nyambe28 · NAM

28Dion Sanderson26 · ENG

44Eiran Cashin24 · IRL

Midfielders

4David Ozoh21 · ENG

8Bobby Clark21 · ENG

11Sammie Szmodics30 · IRL

13Filip Bilbija26 · GER

20Alex Mowatt31 · ENG

+3 more

26Ryan Hedges★31 · WAL

27Lewis Travis28 · ENG

29Oscar Fraulo22 · DEN

Forwards

7Patrick Agyemang25 · USA

9Carlton Morris★30 · ENG

10Rhian Brewster26 · ENG

15Lars-Jørgen Salvesen★30 · NOR

16Mohammed Fuseini24 · GHA

+2 more

19Henrik Meister22 · DEN

33Corey Blackett-Taylor29 · ENG

Transfer desk · this window

All 20 moves →

OUTKenzo GoudmijnAM · to GrasshopperLoan8 Sept

INNicholas BilokapićGK · from Peterborough UnitedUndisclosed4 Sept

OUTOwen EamesAM · to FalkirkLoan3 Sept

INDavid OzohDM · from Crystal Palace€4.7m2 Sept

INMohammed FuseiniST · from Union St.GilloiseLoan1 Sept

Common questions

Who do Derby play next?

Derby play Wrexham at home on Sat 10 Oct 15:00 UK. The published call is both teams to score, at 54%. Read the full match preview

What is the model's Derby v Wrexham call?

medium confidence: Both teams to score, at 54%. The forecast is published at 07:30 UK and locked when the lineups land, so it can be graded afterwards. See every market for this fixture

How accurate has Bawler been on Derby?

8 of 12 settled Derby forecasts were right (67%). Every one was published before kickoff and graded in public. See the full track record

What are Derby averaging this season?

11.1 shots and 1.4 goals a game, conceding 1.4, counted over 57 competitive matches with friendlies excluded — every one a counted match result, not a projection. Compare it with the rest of the league

Who have Derby signed and sold?

20 confirmed moves in the current window. The newest in: Nicholas Bilokapić, David Ozoh, Mohammed Fuseini. The newest out: Kenzo Goudmijn, Owen Eames. Follow the transfer desk

Championship table

FotMob, 28 Sept 2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	8	5	2	1	13-6	+7	17
2	West Ham	8	4	3	1	22-11	+11	15
3	Middlesbrough	8	4	3	1	16-12	+4	15
4	Wolves	7	4	2	1	15-10	+5	14
5	West Brom	8	4	2	2	10-8	+2	14
6	QPR	8	3	4	1	10-7	+3	13
7	Stoke	8	4	1	3	13-12	+1	13
8	Bristol City	8	4	1	3	11-12	-1	13
9	Charlton	8	3	3	2	7-10	-3	12
10	Birmingham	8	2	5	1	12-11	+1	11
11	Millwall	8	3	2	3	15-15	0	11
12	Lincoln	8	3	2	3	7-8	-1	11
13	Southampton	8	4	2	2	19-10	+9	10
14	Wrexham	8	2	4	2	9-12	-3	10
15	Bolton	8	3	1	4	11-15	-4	10
16	Blackburn	8	2	3	3	12-12	0	9
17	Norwich	8	3	0	5	16-17	-1	9
18	Sheff Utd	8	2	3	3	9-11	-2	9
19	Portsmouth	7	2	2	3	9-10	-1	8
20	Watford	8	2	2	4	7-10	-3	8
21	Cardiff	8	1	4	3	10-12	-2	7
22	Derby	8	1	2	5	7-14	-7	5
23	Preston	8	1	1	6	8-15	-7	4
24	Burnley	8	0	4	4	9-17	-8	4