Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelParis Saint-Germain on top: Ferran Torres to test the keeper, and Gianluca Mancini kept busy stopping them.
Paris Saint-Germain v AS Roma prediction
Our model gives Paris Saint-Germain a 66% chance of winning this Champions League game. A AS Roma win is 15% and a draw 18%. Our predicted score is Paris Saint-Germain 2–1 AS Roma, at 9%. Our expected goals are 2.6 for Paris Saint-Germain and 1.2 for AS Roma, 3.8 in all. Both teams scoring is 64% and three or more goals is 72%.
Of the players, Désiré Doué of Paris Saint-Germain tops our shots forecast at 3.4, if they start. Donyell Malen (AS Roma) leads for shots on target, at 1.4. For cards, Marten de Roon (AS Roma) has been booked once every 3 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here. On form, Paris Saint-Germain have six wins, no draws and no defeats from their last six games, and AS Roma have four wins, one draw and one defeat.
On shots, our forecast is 20.0 for Paris Saint-Germain and 7.7 for AS Roma, with 5.9 and 3.3 on target, and corners at 6.0 to 2.7. So we expect Paris Saint-Germain to do more of the shooting. Bawler's pick combines Paris Saint-Germain or Draw, Gianluca Mancini 1+ Foul Committed and Ferran Torres 1+ Shot on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 50%, a fair price of Evens (2.01).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Paris Saint-Germain · last 6
AS Roma · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Paris Saint-Germain to win is 66% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Ligue 1 table →Serie A table →Common questions
Who will win Paris Saint-Germain vs AS Roma?
Bawler's model rates this match: Paris Saint-Germain are favoured (66% win probability vs 15% for AS Roma, 18% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Paris Saint-Germain vs AS Roma?
Bawler's predicted score is Paris Saint-Germain 2-1 AS Roma: the most likely score if Paris Saint-Germain win, which is the likeliest result (66%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.1%. Expected total goals: 3.8.
How does Bawler predict Paris Saint-Germain vs AS Roma?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Paris Saint-Germain 66%, the draw 18% and AS Roma 15%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint-Germain vs AS Roma?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 64% chance. That is based on Paris Saint-Germain expecting 2.56 goals and AS Roma 1.20.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Paris Saint-Germain vs AS Roma?
Bawler's model expects 3.8 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 72%.
When are the Paris Saint-Germain v AS Roma line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Paris Saint-Germain v AS Roma?
Paris Saint-Germain or Draw (85%), Gianluca Mancini 1+ Foul Committed (76%), Ferran Torres 1+ Shot on Target (70%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 50% chance, a fair price of Evens (2.01). 18+, please gamble responsibly.