Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelParis Saint-Germain on top: Ferran Torres to test the keeper, and Elye Wahi kept busy stopping them.
Nice v Paris Saint-Germain prediction
Our model makes Paris Saint-Germain clear favourites for this Ligue 1 game, with a 71% chance of winning. Nice are given 12%, and the draw 17%. If you want one score, our predicted score is Nice 0–2 Paris Saint-Germain, at 10%. Our expected goals are 1.0 for Nice and 2.5 for Paris Saint-Germain, 3.5 in all. Both teams scoring is 57% and three or more goals is 68%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Nice have won one, Paris Saint-Germain three, and one was drawn. When they last met, it finished Nice 0–4 Paris Saint-Germain, in Mar 2026. Of the players, Désiré Doué of Paris Saint-Germain tops our shots forecast at 3.9, if they start. Ferran Torres (Paris Saint-Germain) leads for shots on target, at 1.4. For cards, Elye Wahi (Nice) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here.
On shots, our forecast is 10.8 for Nice and 23.1 for Paris Saint-Germain, with 3.6 and 7.6 on target, and corners at 3.5 to 7.4. So we expect Paris Saint-Germain to do more of the shooting. On form, Nice have four wins, no draws and two defeats from their last six games, and Paris Saint-Germain have six wins, no draws and no defeats. Bawler's pick combines Paris Saint-Germain or Draw, Elye Wahi 1+ Foul Committed and Ferran Torres 1+ Shot on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 49%, a fair price of Evens (2.02).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Nice · last 6
Paris Saint-Germain · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Paris Saint-Germain to win is 71% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Ligue 1 table →Common questions
Who will win Nice vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Bawler's model rates this match: Paris Saint-Germain are favoured (71% win probability vs 12% for Nice, 17% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Nice vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Bawler's predicted score is Nice 0-2 Paris Saint-Germain: the most likely score if Paris Saint-Germain win, which is the likeliest result (71%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.6%. Expected total goals: 3.5.
How does Bawler predict Nice vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Nice 12%, the draw 17% and Paris Saint-Germain 71%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 57% chance. That is based on Nice expecting 0.96 goals and Paris Saint-Germain 2.55.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Nice vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Bawler's model expects 3.5 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 68%.
When are the Nice v Paris Saint-Germain line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Nice v Paris Saint-Germain?
Paris Saint-Germain or Draw (88%), Elye Wahi 1+ Foul Committed (72%), Ferran Torres 1+ Shot on Target (71%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 49% chance, a fair price of Evens (2.02). 18+, please gamble responsibly.