Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelMarseille on top, and Amine Gouiri getting plenty of shots away.
Marseille v Levski Sofia prediction
Our model makes Marseille clear favourites for this Europa League game, with a 69% chance of winning. Levski Sofia are given 11%, and the draw 19%. Our predicted score is Marseille 2–0 Levski Sofia (12%), though no one exact score is likely on its own. Marseille are expected to score 2.2 goals and Levski Sofia 0.8, 3.0 between them. Both teams scoring is only 49% and three or more goals is 59%.
On shots, our forecast is 16.6 for Marseille and 10.1 for Levski Sofia, with 4.8 and 4.3 on target, and corners at 5.7 to 3.4. So we expect Marseille to do more of the shooting. On form, Marseille have five wins, no draws and one defeat from their last six games, and Levski Sofia have four wins, one draw and one defeat.
Amine Gouiri is the player we expect to shoot most: 2.5 shots and 1.1 on target for Marseille, if they start. For cards, Geoffrey Kondogbia (Marseille) has been booked once every 2 games in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here. Bawler's pick for this game is Marseille or Draw, Marseille Over 12.5 Shots and Amine Gouiri 2+ Shots. Our model gives all three landing together a 50% chance, which makes the fair price Evens (1.98).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Marseille · last 6
Levski Sofia · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Marseille to win is 69% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Ligue 1 table →Common questions
Who will win Marseille vs Levski Sofia?
Bawler's model rates this match: Marseille are favoured (69% win probability vs 11% for Levski Sofia, 19% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Marseille vs Levski Sofia?
Bawler's predicted score is Marseille 2-0 Levski Sofia: the most likely score if Marseille win, which is the likeliest result (69%). Our model puts that exact score at 11.8%. Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Marseille vs Levski Sofia?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Marseille 69%, the draw 19% and Levski Sofia 11%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Marseille vs Levski Sofia?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Marseille expecting 2.24 goals and Levski Sofia 0.81.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Marseille vs Levski Sofia?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 59%.
When are the Marseille v Levski Sofia line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Marseille v Levski Sofia?
Marseille or Draw (89%), Marseille Over 12.5 Shots (78%), Amine Gouiri 2+ Shots (67%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 50% chance, a fair price of Evens (1.98). 18+, please gamble responsibly.