Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelMarseille on top, and Igor Paixão getting plenty of shots away.
Marseille v Le Mans prediction
Marseille go into this Ligue 1 match as strong favourites on our numbers: 65% to win, against 16% for Le Mans and 19% for a draw. Our predicted score is Marseille 2–1 Le Mans, at 9%. Marseille are expected to score 2.4 goals and Le Mans 1.1, 3.6 between them. Both teams scoring is 62% and three or more goals is 69%.
On shots, our forecast is 18.5 for Marseille and 10.4 for Le Mans, with 6.3 and 3.9 on target, and corners at 6.3 to 2.9. So we expect Marseille to do more of the shooting. For cards, Alexandre Lauray (Le Mans) has been booked about once a game in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here.
In their last six games Marseille have four wins, no draws and two defeats, while Le Mans have one win, two draws and three defeats. Marseille won their most recent match and Le Mans lost theirs. Bawler's pick for this game is Marseille or Draw, Marseille Over 14.5 Shots and Igor Paixão 2+ Shots. Our model gives all three landing together a 49% chance, which makes the fair price Evens (2.03).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Marseille · last 6
Le Mans · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Marseille to win is 65% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Ligue 1 table →Common questions
Who will win Marseille vs Le Mans?
Bawler's model rates this match: Marseille are favoured (65% win probability vs 16% for Le Mans, 19% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Marseille vs Le Mans?
Bawler's predicted score is Marseille 2-1 Le Mans: the most likely score if Marseille win, which is the likeliest result (65%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.4%. Expected total goals: 3.6.
How does Bawler predict Marseille vs Le Mans?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Marseille 65%, the draw 19% and Le Mans 16%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Marseille vs Le Mans?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 62% chance. That is based on Marseille expecting 2.42 goals and Le Mans 1.14.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Marseille vs Le Mans?
Bawler's model expects 3.6 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 69%.
When are the Marseille v Le Mans line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Marseille v Le Mans?
Marseille or Draw (84%), Marseille Over 14.5 Shots (76%), Igor Paixão 2+ Shots (70%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 49% chance, a fair price of Evens (2.03). 18+, please gamble responsibly.