Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelAn open game: both sides to score, with Liam Delap and Cole Palmer both getting shots away.
Nottingham Forest v Chelsea prediction
There is little between the sides in this Premier League game. Nottingham Forest edge it at 39%, Chelsea are 35% and a draw is 26%. Our predicted score is Nottingham Forest 2–1 Chelsea, the likeliest Nottingham Forest win score (8%). We expect 2.9 goals in total: 1.5 for Nottingham Forest and 1.4 for Chelsea. Both teams scoring is 58% and three or more goals is 55%.
On shots, our forecast is 13.8 for Nottingham Forest and 12.4 for Chelsea, with 4.6 and 4.0 on target, and corners at 4.9 to 4.6. Of the players, Liam Delap of Nottingham Forest tops our shots forecast at 2.6, if they start. Cole Palmer (Chelsea) leads for shots on target, at 0.8. For cards, Jorrel Hato (Chelsea) has been booked once every 2 games in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Nottingham Forest have won one, Chelsea three, and one was drawn. When they last met, it finished Chelsea 1–3 Nottingham Forest, in May 2026. Nottingham Forest come in with one win, one draw and four defeats in their last six. Chelsea have three wins, one draw and two defeats over the same run. Bawler's pick combines Both Teams to Score, Over 21.5 Total Shots, Liam Delap 1+ Shot and Cole Palmer 1+ Shot. We make the chance of all four coming in 45%, a fair price of 5/4 (2.23).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Nottingham Forest · last 6
Chelsea · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Nottingham Forest or draw is 65% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Premier League table →Common questions
Who will win Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea?
Bawler's model rates this match: Nottingham Forest are favoured (39% win probability vs 35% for Chelsea, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea?
Bawler's predicted score is Nottingham Forest 2-1 Chelsea: the most likely score if Nottingham Forest win, which is the likeliest result (39%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.5%. Expected total goals: 2.9.
How does Bawler predict Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Nottingham Forest 39%, the draw 26% and Chelsea 35%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 58% chance. That is based on Nottingham Forest expecting 1.49 goals and Chelsea 1.39.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea?
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 55%.
When are the Nottingham Forest v Chelsea line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Nottingham Forest v Chelsea?
Both Teams to Score (58%), Over 21.5 Total Shots (79%), Liam Delap 1+ Shot (89%), Cole Palmer 1+ Shot (87%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 45% chance, a fair price of 5/4 (2.23). 18+, please gamble responsibly.